Sligo Rovers 2-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shamrock Rovers make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 28 June 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Sligo Rovers (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at The Showgrounds, Sligo Rovers have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Showgrounds. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Sligo Rovers have seen both teams score in just 10% of their matches, Shamrock Rovers in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sligo Rovers lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sligo Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 50% versus Shamrock Rovers 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 49% | Shamrock Rovers 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.79 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.753 / defence 1.004 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.064 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 0.971. Sligo Rovers's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Sligo Rovers games / 57 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 27% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 41%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Shamrock Rovers 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Sligo Rovers's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 10% | Shamrock Rovers 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jun 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 27% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Sligo Rovers 0.79 / Shamrock Rovers 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.753 / def 1.004 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.064 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.226 / away 0.971 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Shamrock Rovers xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 June 2024 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Sligo Rovers 2 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 27% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (1 meetings): Sligo Rovers 0W | Draws 0 | Shamrock Rovers 1W.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.75x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.06x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
27%
3.70
32%
3.10
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.82
1.04
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 16.8 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.04 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 24W 17D 31L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 44W 19D 9L from 72 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sligo Rovers.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.58 PPG from 36 outings (16W 9D 11L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 14D 7L from 36 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shamrock Rovers's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.78 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 17D 31L in their last 72 games (1.24 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 44W 19D 9L in their last 72 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.58 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 on 13 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 4, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 42%, Shamrock Rovers 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sligo Rovers) and 31% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 50%; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 36% of games; Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 33% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 31% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sligo Rovers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shamrock Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Shamrock Rovers 2-0 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.79 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.04 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sligo Rovers beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.75 / defence 1.00 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.06 / defence 0.85, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 27% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 41%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, Shamrock Rovers 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Sligo Rovers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.