Sligo Rovers 0-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Friday 20 October 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 5W 0D 5L at The Showgrounds — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dundalk's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Sligo Rovers, 1.30 for Dundalk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sligo Rovers lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Dundalk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sligo Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 52% versus Dundalk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 50% | Dundalk 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.30 xG and Dundalk 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.855 / defence 0.951 | Dundalk attack 0.924 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 0.979. Data: 68 Sligo Rovers games / 69 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 46% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 24%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Dundalk 4.17. Sligo Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sligo Rovers as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 10% | Dundalk 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Friday 20 Oct 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 46% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.30 / Dundalk 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.855 / def 0.951 | Dundalk attack 0.924 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.536 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Dundalk xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 October 2023 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 46% chance of winning, Dundalk a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
Record (2 meetings): Sligo Rovers 0W | Draws 0 | Dundalk 2W.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.85x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.92x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 68/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
46%
2.15
29%
3.42
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.16
0.86
Dundalk xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.86 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 68 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 24W 16D 28L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Dundalk's form line: 31W 18D 19L from 68 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.63 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.65 PPG from 34 outings (16W 8D 10L).
On the road, Dundalk have gone 10W 9D 15L from 34 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sligo Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.44 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 16D 28L in their last 68 games (1.29 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 31W 18D 19L in their last 68 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.65 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Dundalk in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 3, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 44%, Dundalk 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sligo Rovers) and 38% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 32% of games; Dundalk in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 41% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 38% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Dundalk tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sligo Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Sligo Rovers 0-2 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.30 xG and Dundalk 0.86 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sligo Rovers fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Dundalk outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Dundalk attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 46% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 24%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Dundalk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 50%, Dundalk 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dundalk's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.29 PPG, Dundalk 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.