Shelbourne 1-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 11 August 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Tolka Park this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Shelbourne, 1.70 for Shamrock Rovers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 45% versus Shamrock Rovers 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 36% | Shamrock Rovers 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 0.81 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.838 / defence 0.897 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.102 / defence 0.652. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.152. Shamrock Rovers's defence strength of 0.652 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Shelbourne games / 62 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 26% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 43%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Shamrock Rovers 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 70% | Shamrock Rovers 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 11 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 26% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Shelbourne 0.81 / Shamrock Rovers 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.838 / def 0.897 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.102 / def 0.652 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Shamrock Rovers xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 11 August 2023 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Shelbourne 1 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 26% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.84) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.10x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
26%
3.89
31%
3.21
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
1.95
1.14
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
8%
12.15
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 16.3 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.14 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 19W 23D 20L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 38W 15D 9L from 62 games, 2.08 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shelbourne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.35 PPG from 31 outings (10W 12D 9L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 14W 10D 7L from 31 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shamrock Rovers's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.77 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Blended
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 19W 23D 20L in their last 62 games (1.29 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 38W 15D 9L in their last 62 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.35 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
4
Draws
3
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Shamrock Rovers.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 48%, Shamrock Rovers 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Shelbourne) and 36% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 48%; Shelbourne have failed to score in 36% of games; Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 32% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Shelbourne's recent games and 36% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 27, as Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 0.81 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.14 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.10 / defence 0.65, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 26% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 43%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 36%, Shamrock Rovers 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.