Shelbourne 0-0 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne's home record at Tolka Park: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derry City (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.90 for Derry City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Derry City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 36% | Derry City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.38 xG and Derry City 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.237 / defence 0.912 | Derry City attack 1.021 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.064. Data: 43 Shelbourne games / 43 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 27% | Derry City 27%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Derry City 3.70. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shelbourne 80% | Derry City 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 27% | Derry City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Shelbourne 1.38 / Derry City 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.237 / def 0.912 | Derry City attack 1.021 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Derry City xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Derry City kick off?
Shelbourne vs Derry City kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Shelbourne 0 - 0 Derry City.
Where is Shelbourne vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Derry City part of?
Shelbourne vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 46% chance of winning, Derry City a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Shelbourne and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Derry City in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Derry City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shelbourne's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.02x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.65
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.38
0.99
Derry City xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.99 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 25W 26D 21L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 36W 23D 13L from 72 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Derry City are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shelbourne.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (14W 13D 9L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 19W 10D 7L from 36 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Shelbourne are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.53 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Derry City in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 25W 26D 21L in their last 72 games (1.40 PPG), while Derry City have gone 36W 23D 13L in their last 72 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.53 PPG; Derry City away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Derry City in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
4
Draws
3
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 3, Derry City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 Shelbourne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 53%, Derry City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shelbourne) and 42% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Derry City in 39%; Shelbourne have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 47% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shelbourne's recent games and 42% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Derry City tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Derry City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shelbourne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 8, as Shelbourne and Derry City drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.38 xG and Derry City 0.99 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shelbourne fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Derry City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.24 / defence 0.91 against Derry City attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 46% | Draw 27% | Derry City 27%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 36%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.