Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 18 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dundalk (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dundalk away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Shamrock Rovers against 2.00 for Dundalk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 56% versus Dundalk 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 44% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.28 xG and Dundalk 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.308 / defence 0.728 | Dundalk attack 0.708 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.223. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — their λ of 1.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shamrock Rovers's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Shamrock Rovers games / 46 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 51% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 17%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Dundalk 5.88. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Dundalk's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: Shamrock Rovers 60% | Dundalk 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 51% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.28 / Dundalk 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.308 / def 0.728 | Dundalk attack 0.708 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Dundalk xG
35%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 51% chance of winning, Dundalk a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.71x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
51%
1.94
31%
3.21
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
1.91
0.63
Dundalk xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
5%
20.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 11.9 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.63 for Dundalk, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 36 games, going 24W 6D 6L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.33 PPG from 36 outings (13W 9D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Dundalk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 12W 5D 1L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.06 points per game from 18 outings (4W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.22 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk in 64%.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 games (2.17 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.28 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dundalk in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, Dundalk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 67%, Dundalk 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 39% (Dundalk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 61% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Dundalk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Dundalk 1-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.28 xG and Dundalk 0.63 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.31 / defence 0.73 against Dundalk attack 0.71 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 51% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 17%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 44%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.