Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tallaght Stadium plays host to Shamrock Rovers versus Drogheda United in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Friday 25 June 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.37 xG and Drogheda United 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.029 / defence 1.000 | Drogheda United attack 1.142 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.305. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Shamrock Rovers games / 17 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 34% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 40%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Drogheda United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Drogheda United at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Jun 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 34% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.37 / Drogheda United 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.029 / def 1.000 | Drogheda United attack 1.142 / def 1.352 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Drogheda United xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 25 June 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 34% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.03) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (1.14x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
34%
2.92
26%
3.82
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.87
1.49
Drogheda United xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
8%
12.95
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.49 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
Drogheda United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 3-0 on 9 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shamrock Rovers
3
Draws
0
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 7, Drogheda United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United finished level at 1-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.37 xG and Drogheda United 1.49 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Drogheda United attack 1.14 / defence 1.35, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 34% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 40%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.