Shamrock Rovers 2-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Shamrock Rovers take on Bohemians.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 23 April 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 0.86 xG and Bohemians 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.270 / defence 1.100 | Bohemians attack 0.709 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 0.696 / away 1.157. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 0.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 6 Shamrock Rovers games / 6 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 31% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 33%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Bohemians 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 31% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Shamrock Rovers 0.86 / Bohemians 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.270 / def 1.100 | Bohemians attack 0.709 / def 0.972 | league avg home 0.696 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Bohemians xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 23 April 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Shamrock Rovers 2 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 31% chance of winning, Bohemians a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.71x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.24
36%
2.78
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
1.76
0.90
Bohemians xG
3.24
31%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 15.5 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.90 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
Bohemians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
5
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, Bohemians have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Shamrock Rovers defy the odds to beat Bohemians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Bohemians 2-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 0.86 xG and Bohemians 0.90 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.27 / defence 1.10 against Bohemians attack 0.71 / defence 0.97, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 31% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Shamrock Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.