Shamrock Rovers 2-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Shamrock Rovers take on Bohemians.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Shamrock Rovers, 1.20 for Bohemians — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Bohemians hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 2–3 with Bohemians winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bohemians have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 54% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 50% | Bohemians 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 0.94 xG and Bohemians 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.179 / defence 0.797 | Bohemians attack 0.903 / defence 0.576. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.169. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.576 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shamrock Rovers's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Shamrock Rovers games / 47 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 34% | Draw 37% | Bohemians 29%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.94 | Draw 2.70 | Bohemians 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 34% | Draw 37% | Bohemians 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Shamrock Rovers 0.94 / Bohemians 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.179 / def 0.797 | Bohemians attack 0.903 / def 0.576 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Bohemians xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Shamrock Rovers 2 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 34% chance of winning, Bohemians a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
Record (8 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 2W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 5W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.90x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
37%
2.70
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
1.78
0.84
Bohemians xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 14.1 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.84 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Shamrock Rovers have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 36W 19D 17L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 26W 18D 28L from 72 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shamrock Rovers have posted 2.00 PPG from 36 outings (21W 9D 6L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 12W 10D 14L from 36 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.21 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 games (1.76 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Bohemians away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.00 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bohemians in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
5
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, Bohemians have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 44%, Bohemians 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 42% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Bohemians in 31%; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 47% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 42% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Bohemians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Bohemians 2-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 0.94 xG and Bohemians 0.84 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.18 / defence 0.80 against Bohemians attack 0.90 / defence 0.58, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 34% | Draw 37% | Bohemians 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Shamrock Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 50%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.