Longford Town 1-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Drogheda United at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Longford Town vs Drogheda United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 20 as Longford Town welcome Drogheda United to Bishopsgate Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 July 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Longford Town have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Longford Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Longford Town at Bishopsgate Stadium this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Drogheda United stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.56 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Drogheda United's 1.90 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Longford Town's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Longford Town, 2 for Drogheda United and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2021, ended 1–4 with Drogheda United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Longford Town trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Drogheda United trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Longford Town 47% versus Drogheda United 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Longford Town 42% | Drogheda United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.83 xG and Drogheda United 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.632 / defence 1.374 | Drogheda United attack 1.123 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.244. Longford Town's attack strength of 0.632 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Longford Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Longford Town games / 19 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Longford Town 16% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 63%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | Drogheda United 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Drogheda United (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Drogheda United as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Longford Town 30% | Drogheda United 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 16% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Longford Town 0.83 / Drogheda United 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.632 / def 1.374 | Drogheda United attack 1.123 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Drogheda United xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Longford Town vs Drogheda United kick off?
Longford Town vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Drogheda United?
Longford Town 1 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is Longford Town vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Drogheda United part of?
Longford Town vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 16% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 63% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Longford Town and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Longford Town vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Drogheda United?
Record (2 meetings): Longford Town 0W | Draws 0 | Drogheda United 2W.
What form are Longford Town and Drogheda United in?
Longford Town (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Drogheda United (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Longford Town's attack rating (0.63) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Drogheda United's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
16%
6.42
22%
4.64
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.75
1.92
Drogheda United xG
6.42
16%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
15%
6.82
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
2%
43.78
27%
3.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.92 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Drogheda United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Longford Town's recent record stands at 1W 6D 12L from 19 games, a 0.47 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Longford Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Drogheda United, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 6L across 19 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Drogheda United by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Longford Town heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Longford Town have managed 0W 2D 7L from 9 games — 0.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Drogheda United's away record stands at 4W 2D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Drogheda United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Longford Town are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.74 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Drogheda United in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Blended
Drogheda United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Longford Town and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Longford Town have gone 1W 6D 12L in their last 19 games (0.47 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 8W 5D 6L in their last 19 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Longford Town at home or Drogheda United away?
Drogheda United's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Longford Town at home: 0.22 PPG; Drogheda United away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Longford Town and Drogheda United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2021, when Drogheda United won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Longford Town's record when hosting Drogheda United specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
1
Draws
3
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Drogheda United?
From 4 meetings on record, Longford Town have won 0, Drogheda United have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 15 October 2021, when Drogheda United 2-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Drogheda United?
Drogheda United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Longford Town 33%, Drogheda United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Longford Town) and 67% (Drogheda United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Drogheda United in 33%; Longford Town have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Longford Town play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Longford Town's recent matches and 56% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Longford Town vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Longford Town's matches and 67% of Drogheda United's.
Do Longford Town and Drogheda United tend to score early?
Longford Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Longford Town and Drogheda United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Longford Town and Drogheda United finished level at 1-1 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.83 xG and Drogheda United 1.92 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Drogheda United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.63 / defence 1.37 against Drogheda United attack 1.12 / defence 1.26, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 16% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 63%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Longford Town 42%, Drogheda United 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Longford Town's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Drogheda United's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Drogheda United arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.