Galway United 1-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Galway United at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Galway United vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Galway United host Bohemians at Eamonn Deacy Park in Premier Division (matchday 23). Kick-off is Thursday 4 July 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Galway United stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Galway United's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bohemians — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bohemians's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Galway United are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Galway United trading profile (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 10% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 52% of games.
Bohemians trading profile (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 19% of Galway United's games and 43% of Bohemians's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Galway United 19% | Bohemians 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galway United 0.87 xG and Bohemians 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galway United attack 0.784 / defence 0.797 | Bohemians attack 1.017 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 0.952. Galway United's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Galway United have a tight defence (rating 0.797), which is pulling Bohemians's projected output down. Data: built from Galway United's last 21 games and Bohemians's last 56.
Result probabilities: Galway United 35% | Draw 35% | Bohemians 30%. Fair-value odds: Galway United 2.83 | Draw 2.88 | Bohemians 3.34. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS Yes probability 31% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Bohemians's lower xG of 0.77 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.64 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Galway United's last 10 home games and Bohemians's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Galway United 10% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galway United vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 23 | Venue: Eamonn Deacy Park • Kick-off: Thursday 4 July 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galway United 35% | Draw 35% | Bohemians 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% (Under 77%) | BTTS Yes 31% (No 69%) | xG Galway United 0.87 / Bohemians 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Galway United attack 0.784 / def 0.797 | Bohemians attack 1.017 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.251 / away 0.952 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Galway United xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Bohemians xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Galway United vs Bohemians FAQs
What time does Galway United vs Bohemians kick off?
Galway United vs Bohemians kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Thursday 4 July 2024 at Eamonn Deacy Park.
What was the final score in Galway United vs Bohemians?
Galway United 1 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Galway United vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Eamonn Deacy Park.
What competition is Galway United vs Bohemians part of?
Galway United vs Bohemians is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 23) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Galway United vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Galway United a 35% chance of winning, Bohemians a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Galway United vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Galway United and Bohemians will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (69%).
Will Galway United vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (77%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Galway United's attack at 0.78x the league average against Bohemians's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Galway United's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Galway United's last 21 games and Bohemians's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galway United Win
35%
2.83
35%
2.88
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Galway United xG
Total xG
1.64
0.77
Bohemians xG
2.83
35%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.21
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.4 | 15.0 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Galway United vs Bohemians Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Galway United vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are Galway United and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Galway United and 0.77 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Galway United vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Galway United have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 8W 6D 7L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 8W 4D 9L from 21 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Galway United on 1.43 PPG, Bohemians on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Galway United have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 10 home games (4W 3D 3L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Galway United are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.19 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Galway United have seen both teams score in 19% of their recent games.
Defensively: Galway United have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galway United
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
Galway United (Home) vs Bohemians (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Galway United
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Galway United vs Bohemians Form FAQs
What form are Galway United and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Galway United have gone 8W 6D 7L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 8W 4D 9L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galway United at home or Bohemians away?
Galway United's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galway United at home: 1.50 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Galway United or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Galway United have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Bohemians in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Jul 2025, when Bohemians won Bohemians 3-0 Galway United.
Galway United's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Galway United
3
Draws
5
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Galway United vs Bohemians H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Galway United and Bohemians?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Galway United have won 2, Bohemians have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Galway United and Bohemians last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Galway United 2-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Galway United and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Galway United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Galway United 10% BTTS, Bohemians 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Galway United and 50% for Bohemians.
On the defensive side: Galway United keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Bohemians in 40%; Galway United have failed to score in 60% of games; Bohemians in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galway United home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Galway United vs Bohemians Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Galway United and Bohemians matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 10% of Galway United's recent matches and 40% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Galway United and Bohemians matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Galway United's recent games and 50% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Galway United and Bohemians matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Galway United's recent matches and 60% of Bohemians's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Galway United and Bohemians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 23, as Galway United and Bohemians drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 0.87 xG and Bohemians 0.77 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 0.78 / defence 0.80 against Bohemians attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 21/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galway United 35% | Draw 35% | Bohemians 30%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galway United 19%, Bohemians 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galway United's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Galway United 1.43 PPG, Bohemians 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.