Finn Harps 1-3 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Finn Harps vs UCD fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Finn Harps host UCD at Finn Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Finn Harps — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Finn Park, Finn Harps have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, UCD stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, UCD have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Finn Harps at 0.80 PPG versus UCD's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Finn Harps, 2 for UCD and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with UCD winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Finn Harps in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
UCD in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 51% versus UCD 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 69% | UCD 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.40 xG and UCD 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.869 / defence 1.230 | UCD attack 0.677 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.067. Data: 70 Finn Harps games / 34 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 49% | Draw 28% | UCD 24%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | UCD 4.17. Finn Harps hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Finn Harps as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Finn Harps 50% | UCD 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 49% | Draw 28% | UCD 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Finn Harps 1.40 / UCD 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.869 / def 1.230 | UCD attack 0.677 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
0.89
UCD xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs UCD kick off?
Finn Harps vs UCD kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 28 October 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs UCD?
Finn Harps 1 - 3 UCD.
Where is Finn Harps vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs UCD part of?
Finn Harps vs UCD is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 49% chance of winning, UCD a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Finn Harps and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and UCD?
Record (3 meetings): Finn Harps 0W | Draws 1 | UCD 2W.
What form are Finn Harps and UCD in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. UCD (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Finn Harps's attack rating (0.87) and UCD's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, UCD's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.61
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.29
0.89
UCD xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
6%
17.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Finn Harps and 0.89 for UCD, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs UCD?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Finn Harps's recent record stands at 5W 8D 22L from 35 games, a 0.66 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
UCD, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 21L across 35 games — 0.74 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Finn Harps on 0.66 PPG, UCD on 0.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Finn Harps have managed 4W 4D 10L from 18 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
UCD's away record stands at 3W 3D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Finn Harps are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.77 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Finn Harps and UCD in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 5W 8D 22L in their last 35 games (0.66 PPG), while UCD have gone 6W 8D 21L in their last 35 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or UCD away?
Finn Harps's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 0.89 PPG; UCD away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
UCD go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Finn Harps's record when hosting UCD specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Finn Harps
1
Draws
3
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and UCD?
From 4 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 0, UCD have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2022, when Finn Harps 1-3 UCD.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and UCD?
UCD have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 44%, UCD 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Finn Harps) and 50% (UCD).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps have failed to score in 39% of games; UCD in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Finn Harps play UCD?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 39% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Finn Harps vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Finn Harps's recent games and 50% of UCD's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and UCD tend to score early?
Finn Harps have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, UCD in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
UCD cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
UCD beat Finn Harps 1-3 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.40 xG and UCD 0.89 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. UCD outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.87 / defence 1.23 against UCD attack 0.68 / defence 1.13, drawn from 70/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 49% | Draw 28% | UCD 24%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a UCD win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 69%, UCD 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
UCD's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Finn Harps 0.66 PPG, UCD 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the UCD win broke the near-deadlock. Finn Harps (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. UCD (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.