Finn Harps 3-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. meet at Finn Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 August 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Finn Harps (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Finn Harps, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Finn Harps have posted 2W 2D 6L at Finn Park — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
St Patrick's Athl. arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Finn Harps, 2 for St Patrick's Athl. and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Jun 2021, ended 1–4 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Finn Harps — key trading statistics (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 52% versus St Patrick's Athl. 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 44% | St Patrick's Athl. 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.97 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.697 / defence 1.234 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.150 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.202. Finn Harps's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St Patrick's Athl. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Finn Harps's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Finn Harps games / 24 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 21% | Draw 24% | St Patrick's Athl. 55%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | St Patrick's Athl. 1.82. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Finn Harps 50% | St Patrick's Athl. 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 21% | Draw 24% | St Patrick's Athl. 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Finn Harps 0.97 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.697 / def 1.234 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.150 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.71
St Patrick's Athl. xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Finn Harps 3 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 21% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (2 meetings): Finn Harps 0W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 2W.
What form are Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Finn Harps's attack rating (0.70) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (1.15x) against Finn Harps's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 23/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
21%
4.65
24%
4.17
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.68
1.71
St Patrick's Athl. xG
4.65
21%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
4%
25.60
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.7 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.71 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Finn Harps have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 7W 5D 11L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Finn Harps is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form line: 14W 4D 5L from 23 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, St Patrick's Athl. are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Finn Harps.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Finn Harps have posted 0.80 PPG from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St Patrick's Athl.'s season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Finn Harps are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.78 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St Patrick's Athl. in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Blended
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 14W 4D 5L in their last 23 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 0.80 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Finn Harps or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 on 21 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Finn Harps have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
2
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2022, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Finn Harps, 90% for St Patrick's Athl. — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Finn Harps) and 60% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Finn Harps play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Finn Harps's games and 90% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Finn Harps's recent games and 60% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Finn Harps have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Finn Harps cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over St Patrick's Athl..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps beat St Patrick's Athl. 3-1 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 0.97 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Finn Harps beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.70 / defence 1.23 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.15 / defence 1.38, drawn from 23/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 21% | Draw 24% | St Patrick's Athl. 55%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Finn Harps win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 44%, St Patrick's Athl. 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Finn Harps winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Finn Harps (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.