Finn Harps 0-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Shamrock Rovers travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 April 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.74 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 1.000 / defence 1.185 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.947 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 0.756 / away 1.073. Data: 7 Finn Harps games / 7 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 23% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 47%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Shamrock Rovers 2.13. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 30 Apr 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 23% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Finn Harps 0.74 / Shamrock Rovers 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 1.000 / def 1.185 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.947 / def 0.975 | league avg home 0.756 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Shamrock Rovers xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 April 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Finn Harps 0 - 2 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 23% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Finn Harps's attack at 1.00x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
23%
4.43
30%
3.30
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
1.94
1.21
Shamrock Rovers xG
4.43
23%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
7%
14.80
23%
4.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 17.3 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.21 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shamrock Rovers have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Shamrock Rovers won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
1
Draws
6
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when Shamrock Rovers 5-1 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Finn Harps 0-2 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 0.74 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.21 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 1.00 / defence 1.19 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 23% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 47%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.