Finn Harps 0-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Finn Harps face Bohemians.

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Analysis & Preview

Bohemians travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps in Premier Division (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 September 2022 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Finn Harps have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Finn Harps's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Bohemians — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Bohemians away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Finn Harps 0.70 PPG, Bohemians 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Finn Harps have won 2, Bohemians 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2022, ended Finn Harps 2–2 Bohemians — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Finn Harps trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Bohemians trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Finn Harps 57% and Bohemians 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 63% | Bohemians 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Finn Harps surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Bohemians have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.35 xG and Bohemians 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 1.054 / defence 1.183 | Bohemians attack 1.008 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.980. Data: built from Finn Harps's last 65 games and Bohemians's last 65.

Result probabilities: Finn Harps 41% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 32%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.44 | Draw 3.74 | Bohemians 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Finn Harps 40% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 60% (last 10 away games).

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