Dundalk 3-0 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dundalk at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs UCD encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
UCD make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 1 July 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dundalk have posted 8W 2D 0L at Oriel Park — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park.
UCD (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for UCD, so this record blends games from this season and last.
UCD's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Dundalk. A 1.80 PPG lead over UCD (2.30 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dundalk lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
UCD — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 48% versus UCD 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 48% | UCD 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 2.66 xG and UCD 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.300 / defence 0.745 | UCD attack 0.737 / defence 1.620. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.062. Dundalk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. UCD bring a strong defensive rating of 1.620 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Dundalk's defence rating of 0.745 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Dundalk games / 20 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 81% | Draw 13% | UCD 6%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.23 | Draw 7.69 | UCD 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (81%) — a 75pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 50% | UCD 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 Jul 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 81% | Draw 13% | UCD 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 41% | xG Dundalk 2.66 / UCD 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.300 / def 0.745 | UCD attack 0.737 / def 1.620 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.58
UCD xG
41%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs UCD kick off?
Dundalk vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 1 July 2022 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs UCD?
Dundalk 3 - 0 UCD.
Where is Dundalk vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs UCD part of?
Dundalk vs UCD is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 81% chance of winning, UCD a 6% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Dundalk and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and UCD?
Record (2 meetings): Dundalk 1W | Draws 1 | UCD 0W.
What form are Dundalk and UCD in?
Dundalk (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. UCD (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.30x the league average against UCD's defence at 1.62x — combine the two and it projects 2.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.74x) against Dundalk's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 56/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
81%
1.23
13%
7.85
6%
17.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Dundalk xG
Total xG
3.25
0.58
UCD xG
1.23
81%
Home win
7.85
13%
Draw
17.09
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
7%
14.32
Win to Nil
45%
2.20
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Dundalk and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.58 for UCD, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dundalk's recent record stands at 10W 8D 3L from 21 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
UCD, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 13L across 21 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for UCD is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 1.24 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 8W 2D 1L from 11 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
UCD's away record stands at 2W 1D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
UCD
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and UCD in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 10W 8D 3L in their last 21 games (1.81 PPG), while UCD have gone 2W 6D 13L in their last 21 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or UCD away?
Dundalk's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.36 PPG; UCD away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Dundalk or UCD been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, UCD in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Dundalk have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dundalk won 1-5 on 3 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
1
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, UCD have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2023, when UCD 1-5 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and UCD?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 54%, UCD 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Dundalk and 64% for UCD. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; UCD in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play UCD?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Dundalk's recent matches and 46% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Dundalk's matches and 64% of UCD's.
Do Dundalk and UCD tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, UCD in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dundalk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat UCD 3-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 2.66 xG and UCD 0.58 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.30 / defence 0.74 against UCD attack 0.74 / defence 1.62, drawn from 56/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 81% | Draw 13% | UCD 6%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 48%, UCD 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
UCD's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.57. Form held, and they took the win. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. UCD (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.