Dundalk 2-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Bohemians meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Dundalk's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Bohemians's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dundalk, 2 for Bohemians and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Bohemians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 50% versus Bohemians 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 51% | Bohemians 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.74 xG and Bohemians 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.647 / defence 1.130 | Bohemians attack 1.178 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 0.979. Dundalk's attack strength of 0.647 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Dundalk games / 47 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 20% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 49%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 5.00 | Draw 3.23 | Bohemians 2.04. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dundalk (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 60% | Bohemians 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 20% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Dundalk 0.74 / Bohemians 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.647 / def 1.130 | Bohemians attack 1.178 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.130 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Bohemians xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Bohemians kick off?
Dundalk vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Dundalk 2 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Dundalk vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Bohemians part of?
Dundalk vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 20% chance of winning, Bohemians a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Dundalk and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Record (4 meetings): Dundalk 1W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 2W.
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.65) and Bohemians's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.18x) against Dundalk's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
20%
4.91
31%
3.26
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.05
1.30
Bohemians xG
4.91
20%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
6%
18.06
23%
4.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 16.8 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.30 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 34W 19D 19L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 28W 20D 24L from 72 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Dundalk against 1.44 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 2.11 PPG from 36 outings (22W 10D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 11W 11D 14L from 36 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.36 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 28W 20D 24L in their last 72 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Bohemians away?
Dundalk's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.11 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bohemians in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
3
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Bohemians have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Bohemians 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dundalk) and 36% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dundalk's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Dundalk's recent games and 36% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Bohemians tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Bohemians 2-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.74 xG and Bohemians 1.30 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.65 / defence 1.13 against Bohemians attack 1.18 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 20% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 49%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Dundalk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 51%, Bohemians 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.68 PPG, Bohemians 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.