Drogheda United 1-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Derry City meet at Head in the Game Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Drogheda United have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Head in the Game Park this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Drogheda United are significantly better at Head in the Game Park than their overall form suggests.
Derry City (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derry City away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Drogheda United, 1.30 for Derry City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 51% versus Derry City 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 43% | Derry City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.04 xG and Derry City 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.937 / defence 1.004 | Derry City attack 1.290 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.037. Derry City have an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Drogheda United games / 61 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 29% | Draw 27% | Derry City 44%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Derry City 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Drogheda United 50% | Derry City 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Head in the Game Park • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 29% | Draw 27% | Derry City 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Drogheda United 1.04 / Derry City 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.937 / def 1.004 | Derry City attack 1.290 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Derry City (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Derry City xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Derry City kick off?
Drogheda United vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 August 2022 at Head in the Game Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Drogheda United 1 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Drogheda United vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Head in the Game Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Derry City part of?
Drogheda United vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 29% chance of winning, Derry City a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Drogheda United and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Derry City in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Derry City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Drogheda United's attack rating (0.94) and Derry City's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.29x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 63/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
29%
3.46
27%
3.65
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.38
1.34
Derry City xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
8%
13.25
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.34 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Drogheda United's recent record stands at 18W 17D 26L from 61 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 26W 21D 14L across 61 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derry City by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Drogheda United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Drogheda United have managed 12W 8D 11L from 31 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derry City's away record stands at 16W 7D 8L across 31 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Drogheda United are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.48 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City in 62%.
Last 61 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Derry City in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 18W 17D 26L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while Derry City have gone 26W 21D 14L in their last 61 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.42 PPG; Derry City away: 1.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 5-1 on 28 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Drogheda United
4
Draws
3
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 3, Derry City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Derry City 2-0 Drogheda United.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Drogheda United see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 48%, Derry City 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Drogheda United) and 52% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 61% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Drogheda United's recent games and 52% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Derry City tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Derry City in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Drogheda United and Derry City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United and Derry City finished level at 1-1 at Head in the Game Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.04 xG and Derry City 1.34 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Derry City attack 1.29 / defence 0.86, drawn from 63/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 29% | Draw 27% | Derry City 44%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 43%, Derry City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.