Drogheda United 2-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Derry City at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Drogheda United vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Derry City meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Drogheda United have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Weavers Park this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Derry City (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Derry City away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Derry City are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 51% versus Derry City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 44% | Derry City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.08 xG and Derry City 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 1.044 / defence 1.193 | Derry City attack 0.927 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.074. Data: 44 Drogheda United games / 45 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 33% | Draw 29% | Derry City 38%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Derry City 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 50% | Derry City 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 33% | Draw 29% | Derry City 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Drogheda United 1.08 / Derry City 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 1.044 / def 1.193 | Derry City attack 0.927 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Derry City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Derry City xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Derry City kick off?
Drogheda United vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Drogheda United 2 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Drogheda United vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Derry City part of?
Drogheda United vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 33% chance of winning, Derry City a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Drogheda United and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Derry City in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Derry City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Drogheda United's attack rating (1.04) and Derry City's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.93x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
33%
3.02
29%
3.50
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.27
1.19
Derry City xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.19 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Drogheda United's recent record stands at 19W 22D 31L from 72 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 36W 23D 13L across 72 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derry City by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Drogheda United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Drogheda United have managed 12W 12D 12L from 36 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derry City's away record stands at 19W 10D 7L across 36 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Drogheda United are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.53 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Derry City in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 19W 22D 31L in their last 72 games (1.10 PPG), while Derry City have gone 36W 23D 13L in their last 72 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.33 PPG; Derry City away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Derry City in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 5-1 on 28 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Drogheda United
4
Draws
3
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 3, Derry City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Derry City 2-0 Drogheda United.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 47%, Derry City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Drogheda United) and 42% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Derry City in 39%; Drogheda United have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 47% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Drogheda United's recent games and 42% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Derry City tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Derry City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Drogheda United and Derry City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United and Derry City finished level at 2-2 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.08 xG and Derry City 1.19 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Drogheda United beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derry City outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.04 / defence 1.19 against Derry City attack 0.93 / defence 0.88, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 33% | Draw 29% | Derry City 38%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 44%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Drogheda United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.