Derry City 2-4 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 July 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this season.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shamrock Rovers away from home this season: 6W 1D 2L from 9 away games — 2.11 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.11 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Derry City, 1.50 for Shamrock Rovers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derry City 68% and Shamrock Rovers 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Derry City 37% | Shamrock Rovers 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 0.87 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.905 / defence 1.151 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.983 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.231. Data: 20 Derry City games / 19 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 23% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 49%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Shamrock Rovers 2.04. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Derry City 80% | Shamrock Rovers 44% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jul 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 23% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Derry City 0.87 / Shamrock Rovers 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 0.905 / def 1.151 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.983 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Shamrock Rovers xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 16 July 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Derry City 2 - 4 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 23% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Derry City and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers in?
Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Shamrock Rovers's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (0.98x) against Derry City's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
23%
4.34
28%
3.54
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.26
1.39
Shamrock Rovers xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
6%
17.47
20%
4.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 14.5 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Derry City and 1.39 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Derry City have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 6W 7D 6L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 11W 5D 3L from 19 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Derry City.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Derry City have posted 1.00 PPG from 9 outings (1W 6D 2L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 6W 1D 2L from 9 away games — 2.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.58 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Shamrock Rovers in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Blended
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 11W 5D 3L in their last 19 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.00 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 2.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Derry City
3
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 2, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 78%, Shamrock Rovers 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Derry City and 33% for Shamrock Rovers.
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Shamrock Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Derry City's games and 44% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Derry City's recent games and 33% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Derry City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Derry City 2-4 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 0.87 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.39 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.91 / defence 1.15 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 23% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 49%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 37%, Shamrock Rovers 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.