Derry City 1-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers meet at Celtic Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derry City's home record at Celtic Park: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Celtic Park this season.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shamrock Rovers away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Derry City's favour (2.20 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Derry City register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Shamrock Rovers in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Shamrock Rovers hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
It is worth noting that Shamrock Rovers have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 53% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 43% | Shamrock Rovers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.28 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.069 / defence 1.146 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.018 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.199. Data: 48 Derry City games / 48 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 32% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 38%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Shamrock Rovers 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Shamrock Rovers lead the H2H ledger, but Derry City carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derry City (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 70% | Shamrock Rovers 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Celtic Park • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 32% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Derry City 1.28 / Shamrock Rovers 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.069 / def 1.146 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.018 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Shamrock Rovers xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Celtic Park.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Derry City 1 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Celtic Park.
What competition is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 32% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Derry City and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (7 meetings): Derry City 1W | Draws 2 | Shamrock Rovers 4W.
What form are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers in?
Derry City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Shamrock Rovers's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.02x) against Derry City's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
32%
3.10
30%
3.33
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.68
1.40
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Derry City and 1.40 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Derry City have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 32W 22D 18L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 36W 19D 17L from 72 games, 1.76 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Derry City against 1.76 for Shamrock Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Derry City have posted 1.83 PPG from 36 outings (18W 12D 6L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 10D 11L from 36 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.47 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 games (1.64 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Derry City's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.83 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Derry City or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Derry City
4
Draws
4
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 2, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Derry City 3-3 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 64%, Shamrock Rovers 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derry City) and 50% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Shamrock Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Derry City's games and 64% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derry City's recent games and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0 at Celtic Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.28 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.40 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.02 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 32% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 38%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.64 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.