Derry City 2-2 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 27 as Derry City welcome Finn Harps to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derry City stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this season.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Finn Harps, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Finn Harps have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Derry City carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Derry City, 1 for Finn Harps and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jun 2021, ended 2–1 with Derry City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Derry City in-play tendencies (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 60% versus Finn Harps 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 40% | Finn Harps 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.36 xG and Finn Harps 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.054 / defence 1.134 | Finn Harps attack 0.840 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.200. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Derry City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Derry City games / 25 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 42% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 31%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Finn Harps 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 70% | Finn Harps 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 42% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Derry City 1.36 / Finn Harps 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.054 / def 1.134 | Finn Harps attack 0.840 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Derry City (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Finn Harps xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Finn Harps kick off?
Derry City vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 September 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Derry City 2 - 2 Finn Harps.
Where is Derry City vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Finn Harps part of?
Derry City vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 42% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Derry City and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Finn Harps?
Record (2 meetings): Derry City 1W | Draws 0 | Finn Harps 1W.
What form are Derry City and Finn Harps in?
Derry City (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Finn Harps (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derry City's attack at 1.05x the league average against Finn Harps's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.73
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.50
1.14
Finn Harps xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
8%
12.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Derry City and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Derry City and 1.14 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derry City come into this having played 25 games, going 10W 7D 8L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Finn Harps sit at 1.28 PPG from 25 outings (9W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Finn Harps is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derry City on 1.48 PPG, Finn Harps on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Derry City's home form reads 3W 6D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Finn Harps have taken 1.38 points per game from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Derry City are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.04 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Blended
Finn Harps
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 10W 7D 8L in their last 25 games (1.48 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 9W 5D 11L in their last 25 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Finn Harps away?
Finn Harps's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.15 PPG; Finn Harps away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Derry City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Derry City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derry City's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Derry City
3
Draws
1
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, Finn Harps have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2022, when Derry City 3-0 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Finn Harps?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 69%, Finn Harps 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Derry City) and 54% (Finn Harps).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Finn Harps?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Derry City's games and 54% of Finn Harps's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Finn Harps usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Derry City's recent games and 54% of Finn Harps's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Finn Harps tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Finn Harps in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City and Finn Harps share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Derry City and Finn Harps drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.36 xG and Finn Harps 1.14 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Finn Harps outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.05 / defence 1.13 against Finn Harps attack 0.84 / defence 1.24, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 42% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 31%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 40%, Finn Harps 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Finn Harps's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.48 PPG, Finn Harps 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Finn Harps (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.