Cork City 2-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cork City vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Bohemians travel to Turner's Cross to take on Cork City. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 June 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bohemians away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cork City, 2 for Bohemians and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2023, ended 0–5 with Bohemians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.03 xG and Bohemians 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.960 / defence 1.054 | Bohemians attack 1.006 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.132. Data: 18 Cork City games / 54 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cork City 31% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 40%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Turner's Cross • Kick-off: Monday 5 Jun 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 31% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Cork City 1.03 / Bohemians 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.960 / def 1.054 | Bohemians attack 1.006 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bohemians xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs Bohemians kick off?
Cork City vs Bohemians kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 5 June 2023 at Turner's Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs Bohemians?
Cork City 2 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Cork City vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Turner's Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs Bohemians part of?
Cork City vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 31% chance of winning, Bohemians a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cork City and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Bohemians?
Record (2 meetings): Cork City 0W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 2W.
What form are Cork City and Bohemians in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Bohemians away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cork City's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
31%
3.18
29%
3.48
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.24
1.20
Bohemians xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cork City and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Cork City and 1.20 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Pre-Season
Bohemians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 22 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2023, when Bohemians won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cork City's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cork City
0
Draws
6
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Bohemians?
From 8 meetings on record, Cork City have won 2, Bohemians have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2025, when Bohemians 3-0 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Cork City defy the odds to beat Bohemians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cork City beat Bohemians 2-1 at Turner's Cross, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.03 xG and Bohemians 1.20 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cork City beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Bohemians attack 1.01 / defence 0.82, drawn from 18/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 31% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 40%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Cork City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.