Bohemians 2-3 Waterford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bohemians at 36%, yet in-form Waterford provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 27 as Bohemians welcome Waterford to Dalymount Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waterford's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Waterford's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Bohemians's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bohemians have won 0, Waterford 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Waterford winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Waterford in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 44% versus Waterford 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 41% | Waterford 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.05 xG and Waterford 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.804 / defence 1.199 | Waterford attack 0.847 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 0.957. Data: 60 Bohemians games / 26 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 36% | Draw 32% | Waterford 32%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Waterford 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Waterford (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 50% | Waterford 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 9 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 36% | Draw 32% | Waterford 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Bohemians 1.05 / Waterford 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.804 / def 1.199 | Waterford attack 0.847 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.279 / away 0.957 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Waterford xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Waterford kick off?
Bohemians vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 9 August 2024 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Bohemians 2 - 3 Waterford.
Where is Bohemians vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Waterford part of?
Bohemians vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 36% chance of winning, Waterford a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bohemians and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
Record (2 meetings): Bohemians 0W | Draws 0 | Waterford 2W.
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in?
Bohemians (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Waterford (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 0.80x the league average against Waterford's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
36%
2.77
32%
3.15
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.02
0.97
Waterford xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.97 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians's recent record stands at 8W 7D 12L from 27 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waterford, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 11L across 27 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.15 PPG, Waterford on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 4W 4D 5L from 13 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waterford's away record stands at 5W 2D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.33 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Waterford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while Waterford have gone 12W 4D 11L in their last 27 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Waterford away?
Waterford's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.23 PPG; Waterford away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
2
Draws
5
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Waterford have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Bohemians 1-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Waterford?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 46%, Waterford 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bohemians) and 38% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Waterford in 31%; Bohemians have failed to score in 31% of games; Waterford in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bohemians's recent matches and 31% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bohemians's recent games and 38% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Waterford tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Waterford in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Bohemians 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Bohemians 2-3 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.05 xG and Waterford 0.97 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Waterford outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.80 / defence 1.20 against Waterford attack 0.85 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 36% | Draw 32% | Waterford 32%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Waterford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 41%, Waterford 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Waterford's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.15 PPG, Waterford 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.