Bohemians 0-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians face Waterford.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bohemians welcome Waterford to Dalymount Park in Premier Division (matchday 9). Kick-off is Friday 5 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bohemians have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bohemians's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 2 matches, Waterford stand at 1W 0D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Bohemians) versus 1.50 (Waterford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.73 xG and Waterford 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.183 / defence 1.127 | Waterford attack 0.907 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.060. Waterford's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians's last 43 games and Waterford's last 8.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 52% | Draw 25% | Waterford 23%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.93 | Draw 3.96 | Waterford 4.34. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians's last 10 home games and Waterford's last 2 games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 9 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 5 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 52% | Draw 25% | Waterford 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Bohemians 1.73 / Waterford 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.183 / def 1.127 | Waterford attack 0.907 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Waterford xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Waterford FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Waterford kick off?
Bohemians vs Waterford kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 5 April 2024 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Bohemians 0 - 1 Waterford.
Where is Bohemians vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Waterford part of?
Bohemians vs Waterford is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 9) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 52% chance of winning, Waterford a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bohemians and Waterford will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 1.18x the league average against Waterford's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 43 games and Waterford's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
52%
1.93
25%
3.96
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.81
1.08
Waterford xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
4%
24.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Waterford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.08 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W in the last five.
Waterford, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.50 PPG, Waterford on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Bohemians's scoring rate against Waterford's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Early Season
Waterford
Early Season
Bohemians (Home) vs Waterford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Early Season
Waterford
Early Season
❓ Bohemians vs Waterford Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Bohemians or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Waterford in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won Waterford 0-3 Bohemians.
Bohemians's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
2
Draws
4
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Waterford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 4, Waterford have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Waterford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Bohemians 2-1 Waterford.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Waterford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Waterford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Bohemians's recent matches and 50% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians and Waterford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Bohemians 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Bohemians 0-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.73 xG and Waterford 1.08 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.18 / defence 1.13 against Waterford attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 43/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 52% | Draw 25% | Waterford 23%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 50%, Waterford 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.50 PPG, Waterford 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Waterford conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.