Bohemians 3-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians host St Patrick's Athl. at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 July 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 3L across 9 games at Dalymount Park this term (1.78 PPG). They are averaging 2.44 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 3W 5D 1L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Bohemians have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 44% versus St Patrick's Athl. 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 56% | St Patrick's Athl. 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 2.05 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.656 / defence 0.893 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.923 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.281. Bohemians carry an above-average attack strength of 1.656 — their λ of 2.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St Patrick's Athl. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Bohemians games / 18 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 59% | Draw 23% | St Patrick's Athl. 18%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | St Patrick's Athl. 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 44% | St Patrick's Athl. 78% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jul 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 59% | Draw 23% | St Patrick's Athl. 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Bohemians 2.05 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.656 / def 0.893 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.923 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.06
St Patrick's Athl. xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 July 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Bohemians 3 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 59% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Bohemians (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.66x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.34
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.10
1.06
St Patrick's Athl. xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
2%
43.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.06 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians's recent record stands at 8W 3D 7L from 18 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 3L across 18 games — 1.94 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bohemians heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 5W 1D 3L from 9 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 3W 5D 1L across 9 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.67 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St Patrick's Athl. in 61%.
Defensively: Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 8W 3D 7L in their last 18 games (1.50 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 10W 5D 3L in their last 18 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Bohemians's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.78 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Bohemians or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
5
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 44%, St Patrick's Athl. 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Bohemians) and 33% (St Patrick's Athl.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Bohemians's games and 78% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Bohemians's matches and 33% of St Patrick's Athl.'s.
Do Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out St Patrick's Athl. 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat St Patrick's Athl. 3-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 2.05 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.06 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.66 / defence 0.89 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 59% | Draw 23% | St Patrick's Athl. 18%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 56%, St Patrick's Athl. 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Bohemians winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.