Bohemians 2-2 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Finn Harps travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 April 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Finn Harps have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1.40 PPG, Finn Harps 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bohemians register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Finn Harps in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bohemians, 2 for Finn Harps and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bohemians in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 67% and Finn Harps 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 58% | Finn Harps 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.63 xG and Finn Harps 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.170 / defence 1.071 | Finn Harps attack 0.987 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.136. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Bohemians games / 45 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 45% | Draw 29% | Finn Harps 26%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Finn Harps 3.85. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 80% | Finn Harps 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 45% | Draw 29% | Finn Harps 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Bohemians 1.63 / Finn Harps 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.170 / def 1.071 | Finn Harps attack 0.987 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Finn Harps xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Finn Harps kick off?
Bohemians vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Bohemians 2 - 2 Finn Harps.
Where is Bohemians vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Finn Harps part of?
Bohemians vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 45% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bohemians and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Finn Harps?
Record (5 meetings): Bohemians 2W | Draws 1 | Finn Harps 2W.
What form are Bohemians and Finn Harps in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.17) and Finn Harps's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.48
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.83
1.20
Finn Harps xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
5%
19.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.20 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 14W 10D 12L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Finn Harps's form line: 11W 11D 14L from 36 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.44 PPG, Finn Harps on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L).
On the road, Finn Harps have gone 6W 5D 7L from 18 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Finn Harps in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Finn Harps
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 games (1.44 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Finn Harps away?
Bohemians's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.72 PPG; Finn Harps away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Finn Harps runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2021, when Bohemians won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bohemians
3
Draws
2
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Finn Harps have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 21 October 2022, when Bohemians 2-2 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Finn Harps?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 67%, Finn Harps 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Bohemians and 67% for Finn Harps. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Finn Harps in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Finn Harps?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bohemians's games and 61% of Finn Harps's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Finn Harps usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Bohemians's matches and 67% of Finn Harps's.
Do Bohemians and Finn Harps tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Finn Harps in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Finn Harps share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 10, as Bohemians and Finn Harps drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.63 xG and Finn Harps 1.20 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.17 / defence 1.07 against Finn Harps attack 0.99 / defence 1.25, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 45% | Draw 29% | Finn Harps 26%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 58%, Finn Harps 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Finn Harps's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.44 PPG, Finn Harps 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Finn Harps (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.