Bohemians 0-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 39%, yet in-form Dundalk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Dundalk meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dundalk (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Dundalk are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 67% and Dundalk 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 55% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.17 xG and Dundalk 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.115 / defence 1.142 | Dundalk attack 0.805 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.083. Data: 60 Bohemians games / 61 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 39% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 30%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Dundalk 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dundalk (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 70% | Dundalk 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 39% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Bohemians 1.17 / Dundalk 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.115 / def 1.142 | Dundalk attack 0.805 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Dundalk xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Dundalk kick off?
Bohemians vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Bohemians 0 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Bohemians vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Dundalk part of?
Bohemians vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 39% chance of winning, Dundalk a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bohemians and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Dundalk in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Dundalk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.81x) against Bohemians's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.29
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.17
1.00
Dundalk xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.00 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 18D 20L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.55 PPG from 60 outings (25W 18D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Bohemians against 1.55 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians's home form reads 13W 8D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.07 points per game from 29 outings (6W 13D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.32 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 22W 18D 20L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 25W 18D 17L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Dundalk away?
Bohemians's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.62 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Dundalk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
3
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 4, Dundalk have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Dundalk?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 69%, Dundalk 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Bohemians) and 34% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Bohemians's games and 52% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Bohemians's recent games and 34% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Dundalk tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Bohemians 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Bohemians 0-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.17 xG and Dundalk 1.00 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.11 / defence 1.14 against Dundalk attack 0.81 / defence 0.82, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 39% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 30%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Dundalk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 55%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Dundalk's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.40 PPG, Dundalk 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.