Bohemians 1-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 42%, yet in-form Dundalk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Dundalk meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division (matchday 3). This fixture gets under way on Monday 15 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Bohemians have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dundalk's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Dundalk are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Bohemians's last 10 home games and Dundalk's last 10 away games) — Bohemians have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dundalk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Bohemians, 1 for Dundalk and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended Bohemians 0–2 Dundalk — a Dundalk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 54% versus Dundalk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 47% | Dundalk 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bohemians surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Dundalk have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.39 xG and Dundalk 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.982 / defence 1.120 | Dundalk attack 0.992 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.032. Dundalk's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians's last 45 games and Dundalk's last 45.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 42% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 30%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.40 | Draw 3.55 | Dundalk 3.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dundalk (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Bohemians's last 10 home games and Dundalk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 60% (last 10 home games) | Dundalk 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 3 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 15 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 42% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Bohemians 1.39 / Dundalk 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.982 / def 1.120 | Dundalk attack 0.992 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Dundalk xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Dundalk kick off?
Bohemians vs Dundalk kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 15 April 2024 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Bohemians 1 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is Bohemians vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Dundalk part of?
Bohemians vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 3) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 42% chance of winning, Dundalk a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians and Dundalk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bohemians's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.99x) against Bohemians's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 45 games and Dundalk's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.55
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.54
1.15
Dundalk xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
8%
13.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.15 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians come into this having played 72 games, going 28W 20D 24L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.68 PPG from 72 outings (34W 19D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Bohemians against 1.68 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians's home form reads 17W 9D 10L across their last 36 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 36 away games (12W 9D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.51 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
Bohemians (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 28W 20D 24L in their last 72 games (1.44 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Dundalk away?
Bohemians's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.67 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Dundalk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bohemians and Dundalk, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 2 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians
2
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 5, Dundalk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 October 2026: Dundalk 1-2 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Dundalk?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 58%, Dundalk 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Bohemians) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 31%; Dundalk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Dundalk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Bohemians's recent matches and 42% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians and Dundalk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Bohemians's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Dundalk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Bohemians's recent matches and 61% of Dundalk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Dundalk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Dundalk 1-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.39 xG and Dundalk 1.15 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dundalk landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Dundalk attack 0.99 / defence 1.21, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 42% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 30%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 47%, Dundalk 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.44 PPG, Dundalk 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.