Bohemians 0-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 4W 2D 4L at Dalymount Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Derry City (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Derry City have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Derry City are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 64% versus Derry City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 53% | Derry City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.27 xG and Derry City 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.315 / defence 1.058 | Derry City attack 1.261 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.214. Bohemians carry an above-average attack strength of 1.315 — their λ of 1.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Derry City's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Derry City have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Bohemians games / 50 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 30% | Draw 24% | Derry City 46%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Derry City 2.17. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 50% | Derry City 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 30% | Draw 24% | Derry City 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Bohemians 1.27 / Derry City 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.315 / def 1.058 | Derry City attack 1.261 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Derry City (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Derry City xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Derry City kick off?
Bohemians vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Bohemians 0 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Bohemians vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Derry City part of?
Bohemians vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 30% chance of winning, Derry City a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bohemians and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Derry City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.26x) against Bohemians's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
30%
3.33
24%
4.10
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.89
1.62
Derry City xG
3.33
30%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
6%
16.84
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.62 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians's recent record stands at 26W 20D 26L from 72 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 32W 24D 16L across 72 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Bohemians against 1.67 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 16W 9D 11L from 36 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derry City's away record stands at 18W 9D 9L across 36 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.42 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 20D 26L in their last 72 games (1.36 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 24D 16L in their last 72 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.58 PPG; Derry City away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Derry City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Derry City 4-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 64%, Derry City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Bohemians) and 44% (Derry City).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bohemians's games and 56% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Bohemians's recent games and 44% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Derry City tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derry City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Bohemians 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Bohemians 0-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.27 xG and Derry City 1.62 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.31 / defence 1.06 against Derry City attack 1.26 / defence 0.74, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 30% | Draw 24% | Derry City 46%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 53%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.36 PPG, Derry City 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.