Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours PAOK (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Volos NFC face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Volos NFC welcome PAOK to Panthessaliko Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 3W 4D 3L at Panthessaliko Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Volos NFC are significantly better at Panthessaliko Stadium than their overall form suggests.
PAOK — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAOK are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, PAOK have the better historical record — 8 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Volos NFC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with PAOK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PAOK have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
PAOK trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 46% versus PAOK 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 47% | PAOK 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.86 xG and PAOK 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.818 / defence 1.178 | PAOK attack 1.298 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.097. PAOK's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Volos NFC games / 51 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 18% | Draw 27% | PAOK 55%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | PAOK 1.82. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 60% | PAOK 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 18% | Draw 27% | PAOK 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Volos NFC 0.86 / PAOK 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.818 / def 1.178 | PAOK attack 1.298 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: PAOK (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.68
PAOK xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs PAOK kick off?
Volos NFC vs PAOK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Volos NFC 2 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Volos NFC vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs PAOK part of?
Volos NFC vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 18% chance of winning, PAOK a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Volos NFC and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and PAOK?
Record (9 meetings): Volos NFC 1W | Draws 0 | PAOK 8W.
What form are Volos NFC and PAOK in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. PAOK (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 0.82x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
18%
5.69
27%
3.69
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.68
PAOK xG
5.69
18%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
3%
30.48
23%
4.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 13.3 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.68 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 18W 10D 29L from 57 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 35W 10D 12L across 57 games — 2.02 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 8W 8D 12L from 28 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 15W 6D 7L across 28 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.98 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and PAOK in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 18W 10D 29L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while PAOK have gone 35W 10D 12L in their last 57 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.14 PPG; PAOK away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, PAOK in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and PAOK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when PAOK won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
0
Draws
8
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, PAOK have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 46%, PAOK 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Volos NFC) and 68% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 32%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Volos NFC's games and 64% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Volos NFC's recent games and 68% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and PAOK tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, PAOK in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat PAOK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat PAOK 2-1 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.86 xG and PAOK 1.68 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.82 / defence 1.18 against PAOK attack 1.30 / defence 0.78, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 18% | Draw 27% | PAOK 55%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Volos NFC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 47%, PAOK 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Volos NFC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.