Volos NFC 2-1 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 55%, yet in-form Kifisia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Volos NFC vs Kifisia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panthessaliko Stadio plays host to Volos NFC versus Kifisia in Super League 1 (matchday 9). Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Volos NFC have collected 0.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Volos NFC's home record over their last 10 home games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Kifisia (all games): 1W 4D 3L across their last 8 — 0.88 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings (12%). Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Kifisia have posted 0W 1D 3L from their last 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.88 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Kifisia are the stronger side — 0.68 PPG clear of the hosts (0.88 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Volos NFC — key trading statistics (last 8 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Kifisia — key trading statistics (last 8 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 50% versus Kifisia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Volos NFC 75% | Kifisia 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.98 xG and Kifisia 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.996 / defence 1.338 | Kifisia attack 0.760 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.071. Kifisia's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Volos NFC's projected output up. Kifisia's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Volos NFC's defence rating of 1.338 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kifisia's projected output up. Data: built from Volos NFC's last 33 games and Kifisia's last 8.
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 55% | Draw 28% | Kifisia 17%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 1.82 | Draw 3.63 | Kifisia 5.74. The model has a clear lean to Volos NFC (55%) — a 27pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.98 / 1.09) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kifisia (0.88 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Volos NFC's last 10 home games and Kifisia's last 4 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Volos NFC 40% (last 10 home games) | Kifisia 50% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 9 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 55% | Draw 28% | Kifisia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Volos NFC 1.98 / Kifisia 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.996 / def 1.338 | Kifisia attack 0.760 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Kifisia xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Volos NFC vs Kifisia FAQs
What time does Volos NFC vs Kifisia kick off?
Volos NFC vs Kifisia kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Volos NFC 2 - 1 Kifisia.
Where is Volos NFC vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Kifisia part of?
Volos NFC vs Kifisia is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 9) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 55% chance of winning, Kifisia a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Volos NFC and Kifisia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Volos NFC vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Volos NFC's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Kifisia's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Kifisia's attack (0.76x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Volos NFC's last 33 games and Kifisia's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
55%
1.82
28%
3.63
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
3.07
1.09
Kifisia xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
2%
41.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Volos NFC vs Kifisia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.09 for Kifisia, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Volos NFC come into this having played 8 games, going 0W 2D 6L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Kifisia sit at 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (1W 4D 3L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Kifisia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Volos NFC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Volos NFC's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across their last 3 home games, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Kifisia have taken 0.33 points per game from their last 3 away games (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kifisia's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Volos NFC are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.12 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia in 62%.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Early Season
Kifisia
Blended
Volos NFC (Home) vs Kifisia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Volos NFC
Early Season
Kifisia
Blended
❓ Volos NFC vs Kifisia Form FAQs
What form are Volos NFC and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 0W 2D 6L in their last 8 games (0.25 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 1W 4D 3L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Kifisia away?
Volos NFC's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.33 PPG; Kifisia away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Volos NFC and Kifisia, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Kifisia have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kifisia won Kifisia 3-0 Volos NFC on 11 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kifisia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
1
Draws
3
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Volos NFC vs Kifisia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Kifisia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Volos NFC have won 2, Kifisia have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Kifisia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Volos NFC 1-3 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Kifisia?
Kifisia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Volos NFC, 67% for Kifisia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Volos NFC and 67% for Kifisia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kifisia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Volos NFC vs Kifisia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Volos NFC and Kifisia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Volos NFC's games and 67% of Kifisia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Volos NFC and Kifisia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Volos NFC's matches and 67% of Kifisia's.
Do Volos NFC and Kifisia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 100% of Kifisia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Volos NFC edge out Kifisia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Kifisia 2-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.98 xG and Kifisia 1.09 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.00 / defence 1.34 against Kifisia attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 33/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 55% | Draw 28% | Kifisia 17%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 75%, Kifisia 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Kifisia's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kifisia arrived the stronger side — 0.88 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with Volos NFC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.