Volos NFC 0-2 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 1 as Volos NFC welcome Asteras Tripolis to Panthessaliko Stadio. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Panthessaliko Stadio this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Volos NFC) versus 1.50 (Asteras Tripolis). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 65% versus Asteras Tripolis 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 65% | Asteras Tripolis 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.09 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.796 / defence 1.279 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.823 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.049. Volos NFC's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Asteras Tripolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Volos NFC games / 26 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 35% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 36%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Asteras Tripolis 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 50% | Asteras Tripolis 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 35% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Volos NFC 1.09 / Asteras Tripolis 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.796 / def 1.279 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.823 / def 1.389 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Asteras Tripolis xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Volos NFC 0 - 2 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 35% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Asteras Tripolis's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
35%
2.85
29%
3.40
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.20
1.10
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.10 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC come into this having played 26 games, going 8W 6D 12L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (10W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.15 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Volos NFC's home form reads 5W 2D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 1.00 points per game from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.04 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 8W 6D 12L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 10W 5D 11L in their last 26 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.31 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
2
Draws
4
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 2-0 Volos NFC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 54%, Asteras Tripolis 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Volos NFC) and 31% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 38%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 31% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 46% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Volos NFC's recent games and 31% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Volos NFC 0-2 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.09 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.10 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Asteras Tripolis outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.80 / defence 1.28 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.82 / defence 1.39, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 35% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 36%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 65%, Asteras Tripolis 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.15 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.