Volos NFC 2-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Volos NFC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Volos NFC welcome Asteras Tripolis to Panthessaliko Stadio. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 outings — a 2.25 PPG return. Last five: W W W L. They are averaging 2.25 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 0W 2D 2L from 4 Super League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.75 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.25 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 100% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 75% versus Asteras Tripolis 0%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 100% | Asteras Tripolis 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.15 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 1.322 / defence 1.077 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.608 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 0.909. Volos NFC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — their λ of 1.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 4 Volos NFC games / 4 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 48% | Draw 34% | Asteras Tripolis 18%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.08 | Draw 2.94 | Asteras Tripolis 5.56. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Asteras Tripolis's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 75% | Asteras Tripolis 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 48% | Draw 34% | Asteras Tripolis 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Volos NFC 1.15 / Asteras Tripolis 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 1.322 / def 1.077 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.608 / def 0.868 | league avg home 0.998 / away 0.909 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Asteras Tripolis xG
32%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Volos NFC 2 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 48% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 18% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-W-W-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Volos NFC's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Asteras Tripolis's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.5%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
48%
2.08
34%
2.95
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
1.74
0.59
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.08
48%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.16
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 10.4 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.1 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Volos NFC and 0.59 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC come into this having played 4 games, going 3W 0D 1L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Volos NFC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.75 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.00 scored and 0.75 conceded. Volos NFC's scoring rate against Asteras Tripolis's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Asteras Tripolis in 0%.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
Have Volos NFC or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
2
Draws
4
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 2-0 Volos NFC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 75%, Asteras Tripolis 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Volos NFC) and 0% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 50%; Asteras Tripolis in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 0% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Volos NFC's recent games and 0% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Volos NFC edge out Asteras Tripolis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.15 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.59 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.32 / defence 1.08 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.61 / defence 0.87, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 48% | Draw 34% | Asteras Tripolis 18%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 100%, Asteras Tripolis 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Asteras Tripolis scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.