PAS Giannina 1-0 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Panathinaikos travel to Stadio Zosimades to take on PAS Giannina. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panathinaikos stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Super League 1 matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 4.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAS Giannina 3.00 PPG, Panathinaikos 3.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). PAS Giannina's 0% and Panathinaikos's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 0.98 xG and Panathinaikos 0.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.979 / defence 1.150 | Panathinaikos attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.870 / away 0.253. Data: 1 PAS Giannina games / 1 Panathinaikos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 51% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 13%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 1.96 | Draw 2.78 | Panathinaikos 7.69. PAS Giannina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 15% | BTTS probability 18% | Total xG 1.33. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 85% probability — total xG of 1.33 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 82% — Panathinaikos's lower xG of 0.35 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 18%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAS Giannina are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.33 combined xG gives a 15% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 51% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 15% | BTTS 18% | xG PAS Giannina 0.98 / Panathinaikos 0.35 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.979 / def 1.150 | Panathinaikos attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.870 / away 0.253 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.35
Panathinaikos xG
18%
BTTS
38%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
PAS Giannina 1 - 0 Panathinaikos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 51% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 13% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 18% probability that both PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 15%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (0.98) and Panathinaikos's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 0.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 27.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (24.7%), 2-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 65% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
51%
1.97
36%
2.75
13%
7.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
26.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
25.9%
Home win
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
1.33
0.35
Panathinaikos xG
1.97
51%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
7.71
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
38%
Over 1.5
2.63
62%
Under 1.5
1.61
15%
Over 2.5
6.67
85%
Under 2.5
1.18
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
18%
BTTS Yes
5.42
82%
BTTS No
1.23
Clean Sheet
70%
1.42
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
36%
2.80
5%
20.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26.4 | 9.3 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 25.9 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 27.6%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.35 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 1.33.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, PAS Giannina have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panathinaikos's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 3.00 PPG, Panathinaikos on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 4.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Panathinaikos's attacking output running into PAS Giannina's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PAS Giannina have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Panathinaikos in 0%.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Panathinaikos in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Early Season
Panathinaikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have PAS Giannina or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Panathinaikos have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Panathinaikos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
PAS Giannina
1
Draws
6
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2024, when Panathinaikos 2-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 0% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 100% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAS Giannina edge out Panathinaikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Panathinaikos 1-0 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 0.98 xG and Panathinaikos 0.35 xG, a combined 1.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Panathinaikos attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 51% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 13%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 15%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 38% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 18% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 0%, Panathinaikos 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 3.00 PPG, Panathinaikos 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAS Giannina win broke the near-deadlock. Panathinaikos managed 0 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.