PAS Giannina 0-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Panathinaikos travel to Stadio Zosimades to take on PAS Giannina. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAS Giannina at Stadio Zosimades this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panathinaikos stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAS Giannina 1.50 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. PAS Giannina's 30% rate and Panathinaikos's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Panathinaikos, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for PAS Giannina.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Panathinaikos winning.
It is worth noting that Panathinaikos have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 54% versus Panathinaikos 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 46% | Panathinaikos 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.50 xG and Panathinaikos 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.036 / defence 0.929 | Panathinaikos attack 1.045 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 0.832. Data: 28 PAS Giannina games / 27 Panathinaikos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 51% | Draw 31% | Panathinaikos 18%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Panathinaikos 5.56. PAS Giannina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAS Giannina are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 30% | Panathinaikos 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 51% | Draw 31% | Panathinaikos 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG PAS Giannina 1.50 / Panathinaikos 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.036 / def 0.929 | Panathinaikos attack 1.045 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.682 / away 0.832 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Panathinaikos xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
PAS Giannina 0 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 51% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos?
Record (6 meetings): PAS Giannina 1W | Draws 1 | Panathinaikos 4W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (1.04) and Panathinaikos's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
51%
1.95
31%
3.24
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.31
0.81
Panathinaikos xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
4%
25.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.81 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, PAS Giannina have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 8W 14D 13L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panathinaikos's form line: 22W 9D 4L from 35 games, 2.14 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PAS Giannina.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAS Giannina have posted 1.41 PPG from 17 outings (6W 6D 5L).
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 11W 3D 3L from 17 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.34 scored and 0.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panathinaikos in 29%.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Early Season
Panathinaikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 8W 14D 13L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 22W 9D 4L in their last 35 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Panathinaikos away?
Panathinaikos's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.41 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 2.12 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Panathinaikos have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Panathinaikos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
PAS Giannina
1
Draws
6
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2024, when Panathinaikos 2-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Panathinaikos see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 53%, Panathinaikos 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (PAS Giannina) and 24% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos in 53%; PAS Giannina have failed to score in 35% of games; Panathinaikos in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 29% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 24% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Panathinaikos defy the odds to beat PAS Giannina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat PAS Giannina 0-1 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.50 xG and Panathinaikos 0.81 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAS Giannina fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.04 / defence 0.93 against Panathinaikos attack 1.04 / defence 0.86, drawn from 28/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 51% | Draw 31% | Panathinaikos 18%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Panathinaikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 46%, Panathinaikos 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.