PAS Giannina 0-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAS Giannina face Asteras Tripolis.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAS Giannina host Asteras Tripolis at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 4). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
PAS Giannina's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Asteras Tripolis have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAS Giannina 0.70 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of PAS Giannina's games and 60% of Asteras Tripolis's (from PAS Giannina's last 10 home games and Asteras Tripolis's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for PAS Giannina, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jan 2024, ended PAS Giannina 2–1 Asteras Tripolis — a PAS Giannina win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 58% versus Asteras Tripolis 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 50% | Asteras Tripolis 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.24 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.701 / defence 1.101 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.942 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. PAS Giannina's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Data: built from PAS Giannina's last 52 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 52.
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 31% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 39%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 3.25 | Draw 3.26 | Asteras Tripolis 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAS Giannina 60% (last 10 home games) | Asteras Tripolis 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 31% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG PAS Giannina 1.24 / Asteras Tripolis 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.701 / def 1.101 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.942 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Asteras Tripolis xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis FAQs
What time does PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
PAS Giannina 0 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 4) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 31% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (0.70) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PAS Giannina's last 52 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
31%
3.25
31%
3.26
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.66
1.41
Asteras Tripolis xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
7%
13.35
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.41 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 10W 23D 29L from 62 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 14W 20D 28L across 62 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 0.85 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 7W 12D 11L from their last 30 home games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Asteras Tripolis's away record stands at 4W 7D 19L across their last 30 away games, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAS Giannina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.97 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
PAS Giannina (Home) vs Asteras Tripolis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAS Giannina
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
❓ PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis Form FAQs
What form are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 10W 23D 29L in their last 62 games (0.85 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 14W 20D 28L in their last 62 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.10 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAS Giannina
3
Draws
2
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, PAS Giannina have won 3, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: PAS Giannina 0-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 53%, Asteras Tripolis 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (PAS Giannina) and 47% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina have failed to score in 40% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 43% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 47% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 67% of Asteras Tripolis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Asteras Tripolis edge out PAS Giannina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat PAS Giannina 0-1 at Stadio Zosimades, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.24 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.41 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAS Giannina fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.70 / defence 1.10 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 31% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 39%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 50%, Asteras Tripolis 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 0.85 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.