PAOK 4-1 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (84%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face Panserraikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panserraikos make the trip to Toumba Stadium to face PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
PAOK (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Toumba Stadium this term (2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Panserraikos have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panserraikos have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward PAOK. A 2.10 PPG lead over Panserraikos (2.40 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — PAOK have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Panserraikos in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours PAOK, who have won 5 of the last 5 meetings against Panserraikos — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 5–0 with PAOK winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Panserraikos half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 53% versus Panserraikos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 67% | Panserraikos 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.67 xG and Panserraikos 0.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.317 / defence 0.660 | Panserraikos attack 0.670 / defence 1.455. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.087. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 2.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.455 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PAOK's defence rating of 0.660 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 PAOK games / 44 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 84% | Draw 12% | Panserraikos 5%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.19 | Draw 8.33 | Panserraikos 20.00. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (84%) — a 79pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 84% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 20% | Panserraikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 84% | Draw 12% | Panserraikos 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 36% | xG PAOK 2.67 / Panserraikos 0.48 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.317 / def 0.660 | Panserraikos attack 0.670 / def 1.455 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: PAOK (84%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.67
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.48
Panserraikos xG
36%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Panserraikos kick off?
PAOK vs Panserraikos kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Panserraikos?
PAOK 4 - 1 Panserraikos.
Where is PAOK vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Panserraikos part of?
PAOK vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 84% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 5% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both PAOK and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panserraikos?
Record (5 meetings): PAOK 5W | Draws 0 | Panserraikos 0W.
What form are PAOK and Panserraikos in?
PAOK (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Panserraikos (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.32) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 2.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.67x) against PAOK's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.48.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
84%
1.20
12%
8.45
5%
21.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
13.6%
Home win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.67
PAOK xG
Total xG
3.15
0.48
Panserraikos xG
1.20
84%
Home win
8.45
12%
Draw
21.88
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.82
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
62%
1.62
7%
14.41
Win to Nil
52%
1.94
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.3 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 13.6 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are PAOK and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 2.67 expected goals for PAOK and 0.48 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Panserraikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 84%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK come into this having played 49 games, going 31W 6D 12L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panserraikos sit at 0.90 PPG from 49 outings (12W 8D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PAOK's home form reads 16W 3D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Panserraikos have taken 0.58 points per game from 24 outings (4W 2D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 0.90 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 31W 6D 12L in their last 49 games (2.02 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 12W 8D 29L in their last 49 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Panserraikos away?
PAOK's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.12 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.58 PPG.
Have PAOK or Panserraikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Panserraikos in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 5-0 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
PAOK
0
Draws
0
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panserraikos?
From 6 meetings on record, PAOK have won 6, Panserraikos have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when PAOK 4-1 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Panserraikos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 38%, Panserraikos 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for PAOK and 62% for Panserraikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Panserraikos in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of PAOK's recent matches and 42% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of PAOK's matches and 62% of Panserraikos's.
Do PAOK and Panserraikos tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panserraikos 4-1 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.67 xG and Panserraikos 0.48 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.32 / defence 0.66 against Panserraikos attack 0.67 / defence 1.46, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 84% | Draw 12% | Panserraikos 5%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 84%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 67%, Panserraikos 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Panserraikos's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Panserraikos (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.