PAOK 0-0 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panathinaikos make the trip to Stadio Toumbas to face PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK at Stadio Toumbas this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Panathinaikos (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panathinaikos's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward PAOK. A 0.90 PPG lead over Panathinaikos (2.30 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — PAOK have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Panathinaikos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2024, ended 4–1 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 56% versus Panathinaikos 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PAOK 69% | Panathinaikos 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.69 xG and Panathinaikos 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.326 / defence 0.957 | Panathinaikos attack 1.106 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.283. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 PAOK games / 29 Panathinaikos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAOK 43% | Draw 28% | Panathinaikos 29%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Panathinaikos 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 70% | Panathinaikos 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 43% | Draw 28% | Panathinaikos 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG PAOK 1.69 / Panathinaikos 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.326 / def 0.957 | Panathinaikos attack 1.106 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: PAOK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Panathinaikos xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Panathinaikos kick off?
PAOK vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
PAOK 0 - 0 Panathinaikos.
Where is PAOK vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Panathinaikos part of?
PAOK vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 43% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both PAOK and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panathinaikos?
Record (2 meetings): PAOK 2W | Draws 0 | Panathinaikos 0W.
What form are PAOK and Panathinaikos in?
PAOK (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.33x the league average against Panathinaikos's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.11x) against PAOK's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.61
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
PAOK xG
Total xG
3.04
1.36
Panathinaikos xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
5%
18.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are PAOK and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for PAOK and 1.36 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAOK come into this having played 39 games, going 28W 5D 6L for 2.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 1.90 PPG from 39 outings (22W 8D 9L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.28 PPG for PAOK against 1.90 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
PAOK's home form reads 15W 2D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 1.79 points per game from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 2.41 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 2.13 scored and 1.05 conceded. Panathinaikos's attacking output running into PAOK's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Panathinaikos in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
Panathinaikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 28W 5D 6L in their last 39 games (2.28 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 22W 8D 9L in their last 39 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Panathinaikos away?
PAOK's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.47 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.79 PPG.
Have PAOK or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 4-1 on 15 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Panathinaikos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Panathinaikos 2-2 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Panathinaikos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 47%, Panathinaikos 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for PAOK and 74% for Panathinaikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of PAOK's recent matches and 53% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of PAOK's matches and 74% of Panathinaikos's.
Do PAOK and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PAOK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK and Panathinaikos finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.69 xG and Panathinaikos 1.36 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAOK fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Panathinaikos landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.33 / defence 0.96 against Panathinaikos attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 43% | Draw 28% | Panathinaikos 29%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 69%, Panathinaikos 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 2.28 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.