PAOK 3-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAOK host OFI at Stadio Toumbas in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 5W 1D 2L at Stadio Toumbas — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI away from home this season: 4W 3D 1L from 8 away games — 1.88 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAOK 1.80 PPG, OFI 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PAOK, 0 for OFI and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PAOK in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
OFI in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 56% versus OFI 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 62% | OFI 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.15 xG and OFI 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.323 / defence 1.222 | OFI attack 1.002 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.162. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — their λ of 1.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 PAOK games / 17 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 31% | Draw 26% | OFI 43%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | OFI 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: PAOK 50% | OFI 38%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 31% | Draw 26% | OFI 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG PAOK 1.15 / OFI 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.323 / def 1.222 | OFI attack 1.002 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: OFI (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.42
OFI xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs OFI kick off?
PAOK vs OFI kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs OFI?
PAOK 3 - 0 OFI.
Where is PAOK vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs OFI part of?
PAOK vs OFI is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 31% chance of winning, OFI a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PAOK and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and OFI?
Record (1 meetings): PAOK 1W | Draws 0 | OFI 0W.
What form are PAOK and OFI in?
PAOK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. OFI (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.32) and OFI's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
31%
3.27
26%
3.81
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.58
1.42
OFI xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are PAOK and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for PAOK and 1.42 for OFI, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAOK come into this having played 16 games, going 10W 1D 5L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.56 PPG from 16 outings (6W 7D 3L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAOK on 1.94 PPG, OFI on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAOK's home form reads 5W 1D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 2.00 points per game from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.56 PPG overall record — OFI travel well.
The Goals Picture
PAOK are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.31 scored and 1.00 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against OFI's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: OFI in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and OFI in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 10W 1D 5L in their last 16 games (1.94 PPG), while OFI have gone 6W 7D 3L in their last 16 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or OFI away?
PAOK's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.29 PPG; OFI away: 2.00 PPG.
Have PAOK or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, OFI in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAOK and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAOK go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PAOK
2
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 6, OFI have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when PAOK 3-0 OFI.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and OFI?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 57%, OFI 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (PAOK) and 43% (OFI).
On the defensive side: OFI in 43%; OFI in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of PAOK's recent matches and 43% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of PAOK's recent games and 43% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and OFI tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, OFI in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat OFI 3-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.15 xG and OFI 1.42 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OFI landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.32 / defence 1.22 against OFI attack 1.00 / defence 0.83, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 31% | Draw 26% | OFI 43%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 62%, OFI 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
OFI's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.94 PPG, OFI 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.