PAOK 1-3 Kalamata – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Kalamata encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as PAOK welcome Kalamata to Toumba Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 12 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAOK stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Toumba Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kalamata have recorded 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
PAOK in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Kalamata in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PAOK 60% and Kalamata 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 80% | Kalamata 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.07 xG and Kalamata 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.236 / defence 0.782 | Kalamata attack 0.762 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 0.935. PAOK's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 PAOK games / 5 Kalamata games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 72% | Draw 21% | Kalamata 7%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.39 | Draw 4.76 | Kalamata 14.29. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (72%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | Kalamata 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Kalamata | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 72% | Draw 21% | Kalamata 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 39% | xG PAOK 2.07 / Kalamata 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.236 / def 0.782 | Kalamata attack 0.762 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.493 / away 0.935 • Poisson stance: PAOK (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Kalamata xG
39%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Kalamata kick off?
PAOK vs Kalamata kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 12 October 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Kalamata?
PAOK 1 - 3 Kalamata.
Where is PAOK vs Kalamata being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Kalamata part of?
PAOK vs Kalamata is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Kalamata?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 72% chance of winning, Kalamata a 7% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Kalamata?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both PAOK and Kalamata will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Kalamata have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Kalamata?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and Kalamata in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Kalamata (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.24x the league average against Kalamata's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalamata's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 3-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
72%
1.40
21%
4.75
7%
13.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
3 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.62
0.56
Kalamata xG
1.40
72%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
13.50
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
57%
1.75
13%
7.91
Win to Nil
41%
2.44
1%
106.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.5 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Kalamata?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are PAOK and Kalamata expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for PAOK and 0.56 for Kalamata, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Kalamata?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAOK come into this having played 5 games, going 4W 0D 1L for 2.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kalamata sit at 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.60 PPG clear of Kalamata — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
PAOK are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Kalamata are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAOK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Kalamata in 60%.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
Kalamata
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Kalamata in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 games (2.40 PPG), while Kalamata have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have PAOK or Kalamata been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Kalamata in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
PAOK
0
Draws
1
Kalamata
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Kalamata?
From 1 meetings on record, PAOK have won 0, Kalamata have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Kalamata last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2026, when PAOK 1-3 Kalamata.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Kalamata?
Kalamata have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 60%, Kalamata 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for PAOK and 40% for Kalamata. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Kalamata in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Kalamata away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Kalamata?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of PAOK's games and 60% of Kalamata's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAOK vs Kalamata usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of PAOK's matches and 40% of Kalamata's.
Do PAOK and Kalamata tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kalamata in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalamata cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over PAOK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalamata beat PAOK 1-3 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.07 xG and Kalamata 0.56 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. PAOK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kalamata outscored their 0.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.24 / defence 0.78 against Kalamata attack 0.76 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 72% | Draw 21% | Kalamata 7%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a Kalamata win, an outcome the model had rated at just 7% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 80%, Kalamata 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalamata's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Kalamata winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PAOK managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalamata scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.