PAOK 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis make the trip to Stadio Toumbas to face PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Toumbas, PAOK have gone 2W 1D 1L this season (4 games, 1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for PAOK, 1.70 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 60% versus Aris Thessalonikis 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.56 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.317 / defence 1.207 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.874 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.298. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 PAOK games / 10 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 41% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 41% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG PAOK 1.56 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.317 / def 1.207 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.874 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: PAOK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Aris Thessalonikis xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK 0 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 41% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in?
PAOK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.32x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.87x) against PAOK's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.68
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.93
1.37
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for PAOK and 1.37 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 6W 1D 3L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for PAOK against 1.70 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PAOK have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.70 PPG overall record — Aris Thessalonikis travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.30 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAOK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 1.75 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 2.25 PPG.
Have PAOK or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 50%, Aris Thessalonikis 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for PAOK and 75% for Aris Thessalonikis. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Aris Thessalonikis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of PAOK's games and 75% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of PAOK's matches and 75% of Aris Thessalonikis's.
Do PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat PAOK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat PAOK 0-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.56 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.37 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAOK fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.32 / defence 1.21 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 41% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 60%, Aris Thessalonikis 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.90 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.