PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PAOK at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Championship Group - 5. Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
PAOK (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
PAOK's home record at Toumba Stadium: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 5W 5D 0L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 0.60 PPG clear of PAOK in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.20 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with AEK Athens FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 52% versus AEK Athens FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 63% | AEK Athens FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.51 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.300 / defence 0.673 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.316 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — the away xG of 0.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. PAOK's defence rating of 0.673 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 PAOK games / 52 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 48% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 22%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | AEK Athens FC 4.55. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
PAOK dominate the H2H record, yet AEK Athens FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AEK Athens FC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | AEK Athens FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Group - 5 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 48% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG PAOK 1.51 / AEK Athens FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.300 / def 0.673 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.316 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: PAOK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.94
AEK Athens FC xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
What was the final score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
PAOK 1 - 1 AEK Athens FC.
Where is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC part of?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC is a Championship Group - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 48% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both PAOK and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
Record (9 meetings): PAOK 4W | Draws 3 | AEK Athens FC 2W.
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in?
PAOK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.30x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.32x) against PAOK's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
48%
2.07
30%
3.34
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.45
0.94
AEK Athens FC xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
5%
20.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are PAOK and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for PAOK and 0.94 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK's recent record stands at 36W 12D 14L from 62 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five.
AEK Athens FC, meanwhile, have gone 37W 12D 13L across 62 games — 1.98 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.94 PPG for PAOK against 1.98 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 21W 5D 5L from 31 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AEK Athens FC's away record stands at 15W 8D 8L across 31 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.66 scored and 0.74 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against AEK Athens FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Current Season
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 36W 12D 14L in their last 62 games (1.94 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 37W 12D 13L in their last 62 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or AEK Athens FC away?
PAOK's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.19 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have PAOK or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 3-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
4
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 39%, AEK Athens FC 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (PAOK) and 42% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 45%; AEK Athens FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of PAOK's recent matches and 36% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of PAOK's recent games and 42% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK and AEK Athens FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Toumba Stadium, Championship Group - 5, as PAOK and AEK Athens FC drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.51 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.30 / defence 0.67 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.32 / defence 0.89, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 48% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 22%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 63%, AEK Athens FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.94 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.