Panserraikos 2-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panserraikos at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Panserraikos face OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
OFI travel to Dimotiko Stadio Serron to take on Panserraikos in Super League 1 (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Monday 6 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Panserraikos — last 8 games: 2W 3D 3L, averaging 1.12 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings (12%).
Panserraikos at home: 2W 1D 0L from their last 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.12 — Panserraikos are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, OFI have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, OFI have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Panserraikos at 1.12 PPG versus OFI's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Panserraikos trading profile (last 8 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
OFI trading profile (last 8 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 50% versus OFI 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panserraikos 38% | OFI 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.50 xG and OFI 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.983 / defence 1.129 | OFI attack 0.840 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.136. Data: built from Panserraikos's last 8 games and OFI's last 35.
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 43% | Draw 33% | OFI 24%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 2.31 | Draw 3.01 | OFI 4.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panserraikos as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panserraikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Panserraikos 67% (last 3 home games) | OFI 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 10 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Monday 6 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 43% | Draw 33% | OFI 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Panserraikos 1.50 / OFI 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.983 / def 1.129 | OFI attack 0.840 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Panserraikos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.08
OFI xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panserraikos vs OFI FAQs
What time does Panserraikos vs OFI kick off?
Panserraikos vs OFI kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 6 November 2023 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs OFI?
Panserraikos 2 - 1 OFI.
Where is Panserraikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs OFI part of?
Panserraikos vs OFI is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 10) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 43% chance of winning, OFI a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Panserraikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Panserraikos and OFI will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panserraikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 0.98x the league average against OFI's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Panserraikos's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Panserraikos's last 8 games and OFI's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panserraikos Win
43%
2.31
33%
3.01
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.58
1.08
OFI xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
5%
19.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panserraikos vs OFI Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.08 for OFI, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Panserraikos have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 2W 3D 3L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
OFI's form line: 2W 4D 2L from 8 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panserraikos on 1.12 PPG, OFI on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Panserraikos have posted 2.33 PPG from their last 3 home games (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Panserraikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, OFI have gone 0W 3D 0L from their last 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panserraikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Panserraikos are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 0.88 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: OFI in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
OFI
Blended
Panserraikos (Home) vs OFI (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panserraikos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Panserraikos vs OFI Form FAQs
What form are Panserraikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while OFI have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or OFI away?
Panserraikos's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 2.33 PPG; OFI away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Panserraikos or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panserraikos have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, OFI in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 13 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
OFI have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Feb 2024, when OFI won OFI 4-0 Panserraikos.
Panserraikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Panserraikos
1
Draws
5
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Panserraikos vs OFI H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and OFI?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Panserraikos have won 1, OFI have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and OFI last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 December 2025: OFI 3-0 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Panserraikos at 67%, OFI at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Panserraikos and 33% for OFI.
On the defensive side: Panserraikos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; OFI in 33%; OFI in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panserraikos vs OFI Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panserraikos and OFI matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Panserraikos's games and 67% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Panserraikos and OFI matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Panserraikos's recent games and 33% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and OFI matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 67% of OFI's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panserraikos edge out OFI 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat OFI 2-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.50 xG and OFI 1.08 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against OFI attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 8/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 43% | Draw 33% | OFI 24%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 38%, OFI 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.12 PPG, OFI 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.