Panetolikos 0-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Panetolikou to take on Panetolikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's home record at Stadio Panetolikou: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Panetolikos) versus 1.40 (Volos NFC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Panetolikos 56% and Volos NFC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Panetolikos 61% | Volos NFC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.09 xG and Volos NFC 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.788 / defence 1.177 | Volos NFC attack 1.084 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 0.985 / away 1.089. Panetolikos's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Volos NFC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.402 — this is suppressing Panetolikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Panetolikos games / 23 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 29% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 44%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Volos NFC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Panetolikos 50% | Volos NFC 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 29% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Panetolikos 1.09 / Volos NFC 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.788 / def 1.177 | Volos NFC attack 1.084 / def 1.402 | league avg home 0.985 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Volos NFC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Panetolikos 0 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC part of?
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 29% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Panetolikos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panetolikos and Volos NFC in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
29%
3.40
27%
3.74
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.48
1.39
Volos NFC xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
13.63
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.39 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panetolikos come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 3D 12L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Volos NFC sit at 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.17 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Panetolikos's home form reads 4W 1D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Volos NFC have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Panetolikos are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.48 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC in 70%.
Last 23 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 8W 3D 12L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 8W 4D 11L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Volos NFC away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.18 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panetolikos and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
2
Draws
5
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Volos NFC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Volos NFC 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Panetolikos at 54%, Volos NFC at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Panetolikos and 73% for Volos NFC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Panetolikos's games and 82% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Panetolikos's matches and 73% of Volos NFC's.
Do Panetolikos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Panetolikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 25, as Panetolikos and Volos NFC drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.09 xG and Volos NFC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Volos NFC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Volos NFC attack 1.08 / defence 1.40, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 29% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 44%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 61%, Volos NFC 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Volos NFC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.17 PPG, Volos NFC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.