Panetolikos 2-3 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panetolikos at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Panserraikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panetolikos and Panserraikos meet at Panetolikos Stadium in Super League 1, Relegation Group - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 3W 2D 5L at Panetolikos Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Panserraikos have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Panserraikos's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Panetolikos have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with Panserraikos managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Panetolikos a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 34% versus Panserraikos 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 33% | Panserraikos 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.40 xG and Panserraikos 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.862 / defence 1.234 | Panserraikos attack 0.788 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Panetolikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Panetolikos games / 52 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 43% | Draw 31% | Panserraikos 26%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Panserraikos 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panetolikos are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Panetolikos 40% | Panserraikos 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 3 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 43% | Draw 31% | Panserraikos 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Panetolikos 1.40 / Panserraikos 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.862 / def 1.234 | Panserraikos attack 0.788 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Panserraikos xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Panserraikos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Panserraikos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Panetolikos 2 - 3 Panserraikos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Panserraikos part of?
Panetolikos vs Panserraikos is a Relegation Group - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 43% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Panetolikos and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Panserraikos?
Record (8 meetings): Panetolikos 5W | Draws 3 | Panserraikos 0W.
What form are Panetolikos and Panserraikos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Panserraikos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.86x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.79x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
43%
2.31
31%
3.23
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.43
1.03
Panserraikos xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
6%
15.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.03 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 21W 15D 28L from 64 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Panserraikos, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 36L across 64 games — 0.91 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Panetolikos against 0.91 for Panserraikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 11W 4D 17L from 32 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panserraikos's away record stands at 6W 4D 22L across 32 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panetolikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 0.91 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
Panserraikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 21W 15D 28L in their last 64 games (1.22 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 15W 13D 36L in their last 64 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Panserraikos away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.16 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Panserraikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Panserraikos in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panetolikos won 3-0 on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Panetolikos
4
Draws
1
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Panserraikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 5, Panserraikos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Panserraikos 1-1 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Panserraikos?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 34%, Panserraikos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Panetolikos) and 66% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 44% of games; Panserraikos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 47% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Panetolikos's recent games and 66% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panserraikos defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat Panetolikos 2-3 at Panetolikos Stadium, Relegation Group - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.40 xG and Panserraikos 1.03 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Panserraikos outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against Panserraikos attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 43% | Draw 31% | Panserraikos 26%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Panserraikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 33%, Panserraikos 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Panserraikos's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.22 PPG, Panserraikos 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.