Panetolikos 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Panetolikos face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Panetolikou to face Panetolikos in Super League 1 (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Panetolikos's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Panetolikos's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Olympiakos Piraeus away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Olympiakos Piraeus are 1.00 PPG clear of Panetolikos over their recent games (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Olympiakos Piraeus have the stronger record — 4 wins to Panetolikos's 0, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Panetolikos 1–3 Olympiakos Piraeus — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 4.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 49% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 47% | Olympiakos Piraeus 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Panetolikos surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Olympiakos Piraeus have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.01 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.859 / defence 1.171 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.169 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.352. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.748, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Panetolikos's projected output down. Data: built from Panetolikos's last 50 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 50.
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 18% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 55%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 5.42 | Draw 3.78 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.81. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Panetolikos's last 10 home games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Panetolikos 50% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 18% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Panetolikos 1.01 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.859 / def 1.171 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.169 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus FAQs
What time does Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Panetolikos 1 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 25) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 18% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Panetolikos's attack rating (0.86) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.17x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from Panetolikos's last 50 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
18%
5.42
26%
3.78
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.86
1.85
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
5.42
18%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
16%
6.36
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
3%
34.49
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.85 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panetolikos come into this having played 57 games, going 11W 16D 30L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.07 PPG from 57 outings (35W 13D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.21 PPG clear of Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Panetolikos's home form reads 7W 8D 14L across their last 29 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 1.93 points per game from their last 29 away games (16W 8D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panetolikos are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.09 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Panetolikos (Home) vs Olympiakos Piraeus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panetolikos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Form FAQs
What form are Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 11W 16D 30L in their last 57 games (0.86 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 35W 13D 9L in their last 57 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.00 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won Olympiakos Piraeus 6-1 Panetolikos on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 0D 5L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Panetolikos
1
Draws
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panetolikos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Panetolikos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 38%, Olympiakos Piraeus 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Panetolikos) and 45% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 48%; Panetolikos have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 41% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Panetolikos's recent games and 45% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 69% of Olympiakos Piraeus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Panetolikos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panetolikos 1-2 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.01 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.85 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.17 / defence 0.75, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 18% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 55%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 47%, Olympiakos Piraeus 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.