Panetolikos 1-3 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panetolikos Stadium plays host to Panetolikos versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Monday 19 January 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's home record at Panetolikos Stadium: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Levadiakos arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Panetolikos 1W, Levadiakos 2W, 5D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–6 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 31% versus Levadiakos 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 31% | Levadiakos 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.05 xG and Levadiakos 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.817 / defence 1.434 | Levadiakos attack 1.203 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.076. Levadiakos have an above-average attack strength of 1.203 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Panetolikos games / 42 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 21% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 56%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Levadiakos 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Panetolikos 30% | Levadiakos 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 21% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Panetolikos 1.05 / Levadiakos 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.817 / def 1.434 | Levadiakos attack 1.203 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Levadiakos xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 19 January 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Panetolikos 1 - 3 Levadiakos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Panetolikos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 21% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Panetolikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
Record (8 meetings): Panetolikos 1W | Draws 5 | Levadiakos 2W.
What form are Panetolikos and Levadiakos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (1.20x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
21%
4.76
23%
4.34
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.91
1.86
Levadiakos xG
4.76
21%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
16%
6.40
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
3%
30.48
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.86 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 17W 12D 23L from 52 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 15L across 52 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Panetolikos against 1.56 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 9W 2D 14L from 25 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 10W 9D 6L across 25 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panetolikos are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.71 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 17W 12D 23L in their last 52 games (1.21 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 22W 15D 15L in their last 52 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.16 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Levadiakos go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 6-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Panetolikos
5
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
From 9 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 1, Levadiakos have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Panetolikos 1-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 32% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 28%, Levadiakos 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Panetolikos) and 48% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 60% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Panetolikos's recent games and 48% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Panetolikos 1-3 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.05 xG and Levadiakos 1.86 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Levadiakos outscored their 1.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.82 / defence 1.43 against Levadiakos attack 1.20 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 21% | Draw 23% | Levadiakos 56%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 31%, Levadiakos 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Levadiakos's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.21 PPG, Levadiakos 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.