Panetolikos 1-0 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Apollon Smirnis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Panetolikou plays host to Panetolikos versus Apollon Smirnis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 6L from 9 games (0.56 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.22 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's home record at Stadio Panetolikou: 0W 1D 4L from 5 Super League 1 appearances (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Apollon Smirnis have collected 0.67 PPG across 9 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Apollon Smirnis have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.56 for Panetolikos, 0.67 for Apollon Smirnis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Apollon Smirnis — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Panetolikos 78% and Apollon Smirnis 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Panetolikos 89% | Apollon Smirnis 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.47 xG and Apollon Smirnis 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.861 / defence 1.315 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.654 / defence 1.636. League average goals — home 1.039 / away 1.270. Apollon Smirnis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.636 — this is suppressing Panetolikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Panetolikos games / 9 Apollon Smirnis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 43% | Draw 31% | Apollon Smirnis 26%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Apollon Smirnis 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panetolikos are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 80% | Apollon Smirnis 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 43% | Draw 31% | Apollon Smirnis 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Panetolikos 1.47 / Apollon Smirnis 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.861 / def 1.315 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.654 / def 1.636 | league avg home 1.039 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Apollon Smirnis xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
Panetolikos vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Panetolikos 1 - 0 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is Panetolikos vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
Panetolikos vs Apollon Smirnis is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 43% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Panetolikos and Apollon Smirnis will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Apollon Smirnis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panetolikos and Apollon Smirnis in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 1W-2D-6L in 9 | 0.56 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.22 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Apollon Smirnis's defensive record (1.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Apollon Smirnis's attack (0.65x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
43%
2.31
31%
3.22
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.56
1.09
Apollon Smirnis xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
6%
16.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.09 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 1W 2D 6L from 9 games, a 0.56 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Apollon Smirnis, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 5L across 9 games — 0.67 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Apollon Smirnis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.56 PPG for Panetolikos against 0.67 for Apollon Smirnis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.56 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Apollon Smirnis's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Apollon Smirnis's season.
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 1W 2D 6L in their last 9 games (0.56 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Apollon Smirnis away?
Apollon Smirnis's away record (0.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.00 PPG; Apollon Smirnis away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Apollon Smirnis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Apollon Smirnis in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Panetolikos
1
Draws
1
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Apollon Smirnis?
From 3 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 1, Apollon Smirnis have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Apollon Smirnis 1-0 Panetolikos.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Apollon Smirnis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Panetolikos, 50% for Apollon Smirnis — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Panetolikos and 75% for Apollon Smirnis. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Apollon Smirnis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Panetolikos's games and 50% of Apollon Smirnis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panetolikos vs Apollon Smirnis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Panetolikos's matches and 75% of Apollon Smirnis's.
Do Panetolikos and Apollon Smirnis tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Apollon Smirnis in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Apollon Smirnis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Apollon Smirnis 1-0 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.47 xG and Apollon Smirnis 1.09 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Apollon Smirnis landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.86 / defence 1.31 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.65 / defence 1.64, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 43% | Draw 31% | Apollon Smirnis 26%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 89%, Apollon Smirnis 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 0.56 PPG, Apollon Smirnis 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.