Panathinaikos 2-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panathinaikos vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees PAS Giannina travel to Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis to take on Panathinaikos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 December 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Panathinaikos — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Panathinaikos have gone 5W 1D 1L this season (7 games, 2.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.57 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. Their home PPG of 2.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Panathinaikos are significantly better at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, PAS Giannina have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, PAS Giannina have posted 3W 2D 1L from 6 away outings — 1.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 6 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panathinaikos 1.70 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Panathinaikos, 1 for PAS Giannina and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with PAS Giannina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 38% versus PAS Giannina 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 46% | PAS Giannina 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.05 xG and PAS Giannina 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.243 / defence 0.916 | PAS Giannina attack 0.944 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.245. Data: 13 Panathinaikos games / 14 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 35% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 36%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | PAS Giannina 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAS Giannina are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 43% | PAS Giannina 17% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 35% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Panathinaikos 1.05 / PAS Giannina 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.243 / def 0.916 | PAS Giannina attack 0.944 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
1.08
PAS Giannina xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Panathinaikos vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs PAS Giannina?
Panathinaikos 2 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is Panathinaikos vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs PAS Giannina part of?
Panathinaikos vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 35% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Panathinaikos and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and PAS Giannina?
Record (1 meetings): Panathinaikos 0W | Draws 0 | PAS Giannina 1W.
What form are Panathinaikos and PAS Giannina in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.24) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.37
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.13
1.08
PAS Giannina xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 1.08 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panathinaikos's recent record stands at 6W 2D 5L from 13 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 4L across 13 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panathinaikos on 1.54 PPG, PAS Giannina on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Panathinaikos have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 2W 2D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.38 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; PAS Giannina in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 5W 4D 4L in their last 13 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or PAS Giannina away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.00 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panathinaikos and PAS Giannina runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Panathinaikos have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Panathinaikos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
1
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 6, PAS Giannina have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2024, when Panathinaikos 2-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and PAS Giannina?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Panathinaikos 40% BTTS, PAS Giannina 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Panathinaikos and 20% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; PAS Giannina in 60%; PAS Giannina in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 20% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 20% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat PAS Giannina 2-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.05 xG and PAS Giannina 1.08 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAS Giannina landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.24 / defence 0.92 against PAS Giannina attack 0.94 / defence 0.81, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 35% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 36%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Panathinaikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 46%, PAS Giannina 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.54 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.