Panathinaikos 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's home record at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Panathinaikos. A 0.80 PPG lead over Aris Thessalonikis (2.70 vs 1.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Panathinaikos have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Aris Thessalonikis in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Panathinaikos 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 30%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panathinaikos 39% | Aris Thessalonikis 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.47 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.112 / defence 0.652 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.945 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.119. Panathinaikos's defence rating of 0.652 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Panathinaikos games / 34 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 53% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 15%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 6.67. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 53% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Panathinaikos 1.47 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.112 / def 0.652 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.945 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Aris Thessalonikis xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos 1 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 53% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 15% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.11) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.94x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
53%
1.87
31%
3.20
15%
6.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.16
0.69
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
6.57
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
4%
28.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 11.7 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.69 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 26W 7D 11L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 22W 9D 13L from 44 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Panathinaikos against 1.70 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.43 PPG from 21 outings (16W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.93 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 10W 2D 9L from 21 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.11 scored and 0.84 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Panathinaikos have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Aris Thessalonikis in 30%.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 26W 7D 11L in their last 44 games (1.93 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 22W 9D 13L in their last 44 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.43 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 24% (Panathinaikos) and 33% (Aris Thessalonikis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Panathinaikos and 33% for Aris Thessalonikis.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%; Aris Thessalonikis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Aris Thessalonikis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.47 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.69 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.11 / defence 0.65 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.94 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 53% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 15%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 39%, Aris Thessalonikis 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.93 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.